Tha an cogadh seo dol a dh’atharrachadh ar dòigh beatha, le Murray MacLeòid

Le dùthchannan an iar – Ameireagaidh agus an rìoghachd seo gu sònraichte – a’ dol nas daingeann buileach le bacaidhean eaconamaigeach air an Ruis, feumar a bhith mothachail gun toir e buaidh gu math mòr air ar dòigh beatha fhèin, ged nach urrainn a bhith cinnteach fhathast dè cho mòr.

Bhon an dùthaich anns a bheil iad stèidhichte, Nirribhigh, tha Yara Eadar-nàiseanta an urra ris a’ mhòr-chuid de thodhar ceimigeach a thathast a’ cleachdadh agus na prìsean air èirigh a thrì uimhir ri linn suidheachadh na Ruis. (Dealbh: Knut Brevik Andersen.)
Bhon an dùthaich anns a bheil iad stèidhichte, Nirribhigh, tha Yara Eadar-nàiseanta an urra ris a’ mhòr-chuid de thodhar ceimigeach a thathast a’ cleachdadh agus na prìsean air èirigh a thrì uimhir ri linn suidheachadh na Ruis. (Dealbh: Knut Brevik Andersen.)

[English-language version below]

A’ fàgail am marbhadh gun chiall a tha seo gu aon taobh an-dràsta – ma ghabhas sin a dhèanamh – tha e soilleir gun tig crathadh bunaiteach air mar a tha sinn a’ dèiligeadh le malairt an t-saoghail. Agus ’s dòcha gur e sin a bheir buaidh air Putin fhathast, ma bheir càil idir.

Tha fhios gun robh e a’ smaoineachadh gun tigeadh taic bho Shìona, fiù ’s ann an dòigh bheag a’ choireigin. Ach leis cho fada ’s a tha na bacaidhean eaconamaigeach air a dhol, am bi Sìona dha-rìribh deònach taobhachadh ri Putin agus an cliù aca fhèin a mhilleadh am measg nan dùthchannan Eòrpach agus Ameireagaidh, a tha a’ ceannach a’ chùis eagail dhen stuth aca?

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Tha “air a dhèanamh ann an Sìona” air a sgrìobhadh air cha mhòr a h-uile rud an-diugh ach ma thèid an ìomhaigh aca a cheangal ri ìomhaigh fhuilteach Phutin, ’s e a bhios ann ach rud eile am measg sùilean an t-saoghail, a dh’aindheoin dè cho saor ’s tha an stuth aca. Sin as coireach nach eil e idir soilleir dè dha-rìribh cho taiceil a tha agus a bhios iad dha Putin.

Chan eil e gu feum sam bith a dhol thairis air na sean argamaidean nach bu chòir a bhith an eisimeil na Ruis cus, bhon cha robh dùil aig duine gun robh Putin dol a chall a reusan buileach glan. ’S dòcha fiù ’s nach robh an fheadhainn as fhaisge air.

Tha fhios nach eil an cruadal a tha sinne dol a dh’fhuiling càil coltach ris na truaghain anns an Ucràin, ach chan e a-mhàin gu bheil èiginn gu bhith mu thimcheall ar connaidh, tha cuideachd le siostam a’ bhìdh.

Tha a’ chompanaidh as motha san t-saoghal a-thaobh todhar ceimigeach, Yara Eadar-nàiseanta, air a ràdh, le prìs na h-ola agus a’ ghas a’ sìor dhol am meud (‘s ann le stuthan bhon sin a tha iad a’ dèanamh an todhar ceimigeach) feumaidh iadsan na prìsean aca fhèin a chur suas.

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A thuilleadh air a sin, tha an t-uabhas de “phosphate” is “potash” (dà rud eile a tha gu math cudromach airson an talamh a dhèanamh torrach) a’ tighinn às an Ruis ’s chan eil àite eile às an tig e ann an aithghearrachd. Tha sin a’ fàgail gu bheil todhar ceimigeach tri uimhir a’ phris a bha e an-uiridh.

Tha siostam a’ bhìdh an urra gu mòr ri todhar ceimigeach. ’S gann g’ eil càil a tha a’ fàs a tha sinn a’ cur nar broinn nach eil a’ faighinn a’ bhiathadh sin agus às aonais cha bhi faisg uimhir ann.

Mar sin, feumaidh sinn an dàrna cuid fada barrachd a phàigheadh airson ar biadh, no dèanamh a’ chùis le fada nas lugha. Taobh seach taobh, ’s e atharrachadh mòr a bhios ann.

Tha an aon rud fior le connadh. Le cumhachd ath-nuadhachail, chan eileas fhathast air am freagairt a lorg air dè thachras nuair nach sèid a’ ghaoth agus le sin chan eil dol às air ach coimhead ris a’ Chuan-a-Tuath a-rithist agus gu cinnteach ri cumhachd niuclasach, a thuilleadh air fada barrachd a dhèanamh mu thimcheall cumhachd uaine.

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Bha na h-argamaidean, gun a bhith an eisimeil cho mòr ri margaidhean eadar-nàiseanta, gan dèanamh fada mus do thachair an sgrios anns an Ucràin. Tha e dìreach tàmailteach gur ann às dèidh cogadh fuilteach gun chiall no reusan a dh’fheumar an toirt gu buil.

Fios bhon neach-deasachaidh:

Tapa leibh airson an aithris a tha seo a leughadh. Tha sinn an eismeil ur taic nas motha na bha riamh agus buaidh a’ Choronbhirus air buaidh a thoirt air luchd sanasachd. Mur eil sibh air a dhèanamh mar-tha, ma se ur toil, nach beachdaich sibh taic a chumail ri ar obair-naidheachd earbsach, a tha sinn a’ dearbhadh a tha fìor, le bhith toirt a-mach ballrachd digiteach.

As the West ramps up economic sanctions on Russia and Putin, it’s becoming clear that it will bring profound and lasting change to our way of life, though quite how profound and long-lasting no-one can really be sure.

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Whatever day of reckoning will come from this entirely unnecessary and bloodthirsty war, our previous assumptions over globalisation and unfettered trade between rich economies will forever be changed. And it may yet prove Putin’s downfall.

It’s clear that he has banked on support from China, even if just in the most implicit form.

But given how far economic sanctions have gone in such a short space of time, with more to come, will China really risk the reputation of their manufacturing export base by falling in line with a pariah state?

“Made in China” adorns a vast number of the products we use, but it will have altogether different connotations if linked in the eyes of the world to Putin’s murderous regime. You can be sure the Chinese will be well aware of that, and that’s why it’s not at all certain what support Putin can bank on coming from his eastern border.

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There is little point in “I-told-you-sos” over our own economic dependency on Russia, as the truth is few predicted Putin’s descent into complete madness, probably not even those closest to him.

It hardly needs saying that the hardships we will suffer are nothing compared to that of the poor Ukrainians, but we not only have an impending energy price crisis on our hands, but so, too, with food.

The world largest distributor of fertiliser, Yara International, has now warned that with oil and gas prices surging (chemical fertilisers are based on hydrocarbon derivatives) their prices will have to rise accordingly.

In addition, enormous amounts of phosphate and potash, other key ingredients in the mix for fertilising agricultural land, come from Russia and there are few ready-to-hand alternatives. The result: fertilisers already cost triple the price of last year and are heading in only one direction.

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Food production is hugely dependent on such inputs. There is barely a crop grown in this country without its boosting properties and without it production levels and quality would drop off significantly. So either we are going to have to pay much more for our food, or make do with much less. Either way it’s going to be a major change.

Similarly with energy. With renewables still unable to provide that ‘baseload’ supply when the wind doesn’t blow, we will need to reassess our approach to the North Sea and most definitely nuclear technologies, alongside greatly accelerating our green energy capacity.

These were the kind of arguments that were going on before a single shell was fired into Ukrainian territory. It’s just a shame that it’s taken the murderous antics of a madman to bring them home to roost.

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