So what will John Swinney's summit achieve? I still don't know - Euan McColm

John Swinney speaks during the press conference at Bute House | PA

On the day she became Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher attempted to deliver a soothing message to the country.

The Conservative leader would, over her time in office, become increasingly divisive but on the morning of Friday, May 4, 1979, her declared concern was for unity.

“Where there is discord,” said Thatcher, quoting Saint Francis of Assisi, “may we bring harmony. Where there is error, may we bring truth. Where there is doubt, may we bring faith. And where there is despair, may we bring hope.”

I was reminded of the late Premier’s rather unconvincing - and ultimately futile - attempt to bring the country together as I watched First Minister John Swinney deliver a speech on Wednesday morning.

Addressing the nation - or, at least, those citizens willing and able to watch proceedings online - Swinney spoke of his fears about the influence of the “increasingly extreme far right” on Scotland’s politics.

The First Minister announced a plan to convene a summit of politicians, trade unionists, church leaders and charity bosses in April where attendees will be invited to “unite against extremism”.

Accusing Reform leader Nigel Farage of being “an accomplice to the Russian agenda”, Swinney encouraged leaders of Scotland’s other mainstream parties to join him in a display of shared values. It was time, the First Minister said, to “draw a line in the sand” and come together to counter the rise of far right politics.

It was all terribly rousing but, several days later, I’m still not entirely sure what Swinney was playing at.

Recent opinion polling shows Reform making inroads in Scotland. Some surveys predict Farage’s party could return 12 or more MSPs at next May’s Holyrood election, some have them overtaking the Tories. So, Swinney is certainly wise to recognise the rise of a new and disruptive political force.

But did this epiphany merit an address to the nation?

Farage is a populist who thrives on creating division; his politics are cheap and his rhetoric punctuated with dogwhistles. However, while he might provoke extreme opinions among the political classes, Farage’s views are not considered toxic by a significant number of Scots.

In fact, in private, SNP politicians and strategists admit they can easily see circumstances in which they retain support in constituencies next year while losing to Reform on the regional lists. (This is something, I think, to which Scottish Labour is equally vulnerable).

How can Swinney’s summit succeed when a substantial number of people don’t recognise the problem he proposes to solve?

Distasteful though many of its positions might be, Reform is not the British National Party and it is foolish to pretend otherwise.

John Swinney knows the power of a well deployed anti-establishment message. He was a key player during the SNP’s shift from the fringes of Scottish politics into the centre and saw how attacks from Labour on his party’s supposed extremism backfired.

Nigel Farage is now about to use, against the SNP, the strategy it once used against Labour. In Scotland, he will be the insurgent, speaking out against the nationalist establishment.

What will Reform’s extremism look like, next year?

I suspect a simple message about keeping men out of women’s spaces will feature prominently and I doubt many voters will find that controversial.

Not only do I think Swinney misjudged the tone on Reform, I’m still at a loss as to what he thinks “uniting” with Scottish Labour at this point might achieve.

After a landslide general election victory last year, Labour’s poll ratings have plummeted. A few months ago, the party’s Scottish leader, Anas Sarwar, looked a safe bet to succeed Swinney as First Minister, now the SNP are predicted to retain power.

Over recent months, Swinney has benefited from successful SNP attacks on the morality of decisions taken by Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer. The abolition of the universal winter fuel payment for pensioners and a U-turn over support for women campaigning for past pension inequality left Labour vulnerable to that classic “they’re-all-the-same” SNP jibe.

Over the week before Swinney’s speech, more than one Labour MSP told me they expected, given recent polling for Reform, the SNP’s 2026 election campaign to accuse them of being “Farage’s little helpers”. The expectation of SNP billboards, depicting Anas Sarwar nestled in Nigel Farage’s breast pocket was high.

Last week, in characterising the SNP and Labour as united in values and intention against the politics of Reform, the First Minister killed off one of his party’s most powerful electoral attack lines.

How can SNP candidates next year use those tried and tested insults about “democracy denied” and “branch office Labour” if Swinney frames the election as the established mainstream parties against the rise of the new right?

The First Minister’s message last week was confused and confusing but I have some sympathy for him. These are, after all, uncertain times in Scottish politics.

The constitutional question, the engine that kept our national debate moving, is now dead for a decade or more and the Scottish Government’s track record across the range of policy areas leaves much to be desired.

Meanwhile, Swinney is under sustained pressure over his government’s deeply unpopular support for the principle for gender self-ID.

The cynic might wonder whether - with the case of nurse Sandie Peggie, suspended from work after complaining about being obliged to share a changing room with Dr Beth Upton, a trans woman, still making headlines - the First Minister speech last week was about trying to characterise any opposition to SNP policy as intrinsically right-wing.

I’ll follow with interest proceedings at the First Minister’s April summit. Who knows, perhaps I’ll begin to understand what John Swinney thinks he can achieve and why he wishes to achieve it.