SNP leadership race: All to play for in contest to replace Nicola Sturgeon – Scotsman comment

A new poll taken after Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation shows Kate Forbes and Angus Robertson are the early favourites, among SNP voters and the public in general, to succeed her.

However, such is the shadow cast over the party by the outgoing First Minister that none of the potential candidates can look forward to an easy victory.

Among SNP voters, Savanta ComRes found Forbes was backed by 18 per cent, with Robertson on 14 per cent, but the runaway winner was “don’t know” on 34 per cent. Add in the five per cent wanting “someone else” other than likely contenders and the 11 per cent who backed John Swinney, given he has since said he will not stand, and it is clear that it’s all to play for in the race to be leader.

Voters seem to have been fairly sanguine about Sturgeon’s departure, with little movement in the standing of the parties. And the poll may disappoint unionists hoping for a sudden collapse in support for independence, which stayed the same as the last time Savanta ComRes asked the question, in December, with 49 per cent for Yes and 51 per cent for No, once undecideds were excluded.

However, the choice of Sturgeon’s successor and their performance once in the job is likely to have a significant impact. In her resignation speech, she spoke about the need for a new leader capable of reaching across the divide in Scottish politics – “someone who is not subject to quite the same polarised opinions, fair or unfair, as I now am”. The danger for the SNP is that her replacement may be less appealing to the all-important ‘middle Scotland’ constituency.

With no single candidate having a significant recognition factor or huge support, forming a joint team could be a solution. Some may regard a Forbes-Robertson ticket as one way to unite the party and prevent an outbreak of the vicious infighting that erupted within the Conservative party after Boris Johnson’s resignation. Gender reform is one issue that could open up fault lines.

However, amid some confusion among the SNP faithful about who to follow, one thing is clear: all the candidates have a considerable amount of work to do to convince the party and the country that they truly have what it takes to lead.