SNP facing split over Green party red lines that makes Alba party breakaway look like minor disagreement – John McLellan

It’s like Meet the Fockers, said my wife as news about the SNP’s mystery campaign battle bus was confirmed, but if a movie is ever made about Nicola Sturgeon’s fall from grace, it’s unlikely her husband Peter Murrell will be played by Robert de Niro. Toby Jones, perhaps?

It's probably unlikely that Ben Stiller or Robert De Niro, seen in a campervan in Meet The Fockers, will play roles in any future film about the SNP (Picture: Moviestore/Shutterstock)

Never mind the baby box or chid benefit payments, who knew the image of the £110,000 German-built Niesmann and Bischoff motorhome being lifted from the driveway of Mr Murrell’s 92-year-old mother would come to symbolise the fall of the House of Sturgeon? Who knows if Mr Murrell actually ever got to drive the thing like de Niro in the movie, given it was apparently delivered to his ma’s Dunfermline home, where it has been sitting for two years, long after the election for which it was apparently bought was fought and, yes, won. And apparently without the need for its deployment.

Maybe it is all above board as far as any criminal investigation is concerned, and, as every story about this saga is duty bound to record, Mr Murrell has not been charged with any offence following his arrest a fortnight ago. But the ignominy is such that his wife will reportedly be absent from the Scottish Parliament today when her successor Humza Yousaf outlines his programme for government, and there is growing speculation Ms Sturgeon will stand down as an MSP. Unless, of course, she needs the money. Far from bestriding the globe in some grand international role as befitting someone whose reputation always outweighed her achievements, surely it’s not possible the ambition didn’t stretch beyond tootling around the North Coast 500, with mugs of Ovaltine under the awning in a car park in the rain, awaiting the delayed arrival of the next ferry.

Something sounding very like Meet the Fockers might be on Mr Yousaf’s lips in the coming weeks with growing internal dissent about an approach no one expects to differ much from his predecessor, not while surrounded by prominent members of the SNP old guard and having repeatedly made the importance of the Green coalition a clear priority. With the Greens seemingly having more “red lines” than MacDonald tartan, they will inevitably dictate the shape of his administration.

Failing to challenge the UK Government’s section 35 order blocking Royal assent for the Gender Recognition Reform (GRR) Bill was a prerequisite, with Greens’ equalities spokesperson, Maggie Chapman, saying it “was very, very clear that this was a key principle for us as part of the Bute House agreement”. The same applies to the bitterly opposed, but Green-driven deposit return scheme, which the minister responsible, Lorna Slater, said no new First Minster “with any credibility” would try to delay, and along with Green support for a ban on alcohol advertising, this represents a twin threat to the whisky and craft brewing industries. Similarly, the highly protected marine areas policy which will ban any fishing in at least ten per cent of Scottish waters threatens the livelihoods of many coastal communities and has forced former SNP MSP Angus Macdonald to quit the party after 30 years.

As an urban left-winger himself, it’s no shock Mr Yousaf should hitch his wagon to Green oxen, if working animals aren’t also banned, and it was very noticeable in the leadership campaign he thought it was some sort of gotcha moment when he asked the other two candidates which other parties they would deal with if it wasn’t the Greens. That the answer was the same parties the SNP was happy to negotiate in 2007-2011 had either passed him by or was a sign of the mistaken arrogance at the tail end of the Sturgeon years that the party could rely on its MSPs to do exactly what they were told by the leadership. GRR shattered that notion after nine nationalist MSPs rebelled and now up to 15 of them, mainly from the north, are said to be ready to amend any legislation they don’t like.

Who can blame them? It seems there is no aspect of rural or coastal life in which the economic interests of local people are not opposed by a Green party whose MSPs are dominated by those from urban backgrounds. Dual the A9, after the deaths of 13 people killed between Perth and Inverness last year? Forget it, say the Greens, it will only encourage private driving. Support North Sea oil and gas, which supports thousands of jobs and is essential for the managed transition to net zero? The Pope is more likely to wear an orange sash on July 12.

It's an extraordinary list of division when the public’s priority is the cost of living and the failing health service, but the extent to which rebels are coordinated is unclear. It was obvious from the leadership debates that Ash Regan and Kate Forbes have very different outlooks, but the spell of slavish obedience has been broken and veteran MSPs like Fergus Ewing and Kenny Gibson are making it clear they don’t really give a stuff what Mr Yousaf thinks. With Ms Sturgeon gone and increasingly discredited, and independence disappearing over the horizon, rural and coastal voters will justifiably ask why they should support the SNP if it not only fails to represent their interests but actively opposes them.

There is little to stop alienated SNP MSPs forming their own grouping, let’s call it the Northern Reform Group ─ the NRG has a ring to it given the SNP’s new ambivalence to the North Sea ─ to concentrate Mr Yousaf’s mind, but he must decide whether keeping seven Green MSPs happy is worth risking the support of far more of his own. Push them too far, and the Alex Salmond-led Alba breakaway could look like a minor disagreement and leave the independence movement in greater disarray. Urban Greens or rural nationalists, the choice is Mr Yousaf’s and we’ll find out this afternoon which Fockers he wants to meet.