Scottish independence: SNP's descent into chaos as Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak hit their stride is great news for unionists – John McLellan

Like Toto the dog pulling back the wizard’s curtain, the rancorous and increasingly risible leadership contest is exposing rifts within the SNP as never before; instead of revealing a kindly old man struggling with the machinery, behind the drapes is a squabbling rabble, seething with rivalry and intolerance.

They are reverse Dorothies; rather than being transported from Oz back to reality, they hope a click of the saltire-blue slippers will take them from reality to the dreamland of an independent Scotland where all their wishes come true. Except their wishes are contradictions, with the socially conservative, pro-enterprise world of Kate Forbes at odds with the left-wing, centralising orthodoxy which has become the hallmark of Nicola Sturgeon’s SNP, and which Humza Yousaf promises to defend. And poor Ash Regan, apart from a rejection of gender recognition reform, her leadership bid seems to owe more to L Frank Baum than Margo MacDonald or Sir Neil MacCormick, claiming the UK Government will grant independence after a big election win just because she says it should.

It’s not that tensions never existed before, but the trick of the Salmond/Sturgeon era was to create the impression of a unified centre-left, social democratic party which would deliver competent government first, and then carry the programme forward to inevitable independence. Any reputation for competence at anything other than style has long gone, and anyone who’s spent more than five minutes near the party knows their unity to be a chimera, a hydra whose heads tell a different story of the world to come to suit the listener. But it is not just the leadership battle but the events leading up to it which have shattered the illusion, and for that First Minister Nicola Sturgeon must shoulder the blame.

Speaking to Sky News a fortnight ago, her predecessor said that the independence movement needed to be separated from the daily business of government, claiming that was what he achieved with the creation of the Yes campaign for the 2014 referendum campaign. This, however, is as much an illusion as a one-direction SNP because, with the possible exception of the 2012 Offensive Behaviour at Football Act, Mr Salmond’s administration rarely pursued divisive domestic policies because of the potential to damage the independence movement.

The trick of the Salmond/Sturgeon era was to create the impression that the SNP was a unified centre-left, social democratic party (Picture: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images)

Independence got as far as it did in 2014 precisely because the Salmond government’s actions were an inextricable part of the campaign and as little as possible was done to scare the electoral horses, compared to the confrontation of recent months. If there is a common thread, it is the populist giveaways, from free prescriptions, free university tuition and the scrapping of bridge tolls in the 2007-11 term, to the baby box, child benefit and dental care of Ms Sturgeon’s tenure, but it’s unthinkable that something as bitterly opposed as gender recognition reform (GRR) would have been forced through in the three years before the referendum, despite the overall SNP parliamentary majority.

With the SNP and Greens in coalition, the Scottish Government represents all but a small minority of the independence movement, and what you see from them is what you would get from Scotland’s first government after independence. Ash Regan is wrong to say the Green tail is wagging the SNP dog, because the most contentious recent policies ─ GRR, the ruinous double whammy of the deposit return scheme and the proposed alcohol advertising ban, and the undeliverable and costly accelerated net-zero programme ─ come straight from a Green agenda which just happens to match the First Minister’s outlook, a partnership which Ms Sturgeon’s anointed successor Humza Yousaf describes as “worth its weight in gold”. Without the buoyancy of her communication skills, Mr Yousaf might find it has the same effect with voters as a diver’s lead boots.

This time last week it looked like Finance Secretary Kate Forbes had pulled on the lead flippers with her fundamentalist Christian views on same-sex marriage and child-birth out of wedlock, and she tried to halt the exodus of backers with an admission of a “burden of hurt”. But with a poll of SNP members putting her 28 to 20 per cent ahead of Mr Yousaf, the damage might not be as bad as it first looked and, with 31 per cent undecided, her commitment to stop both the deposit return scheme and alcohol advertising ban, and a socially conservative outlook which might be in tune with more SNP members than Ms Sturgeon would like to think, a shock might still be on the cards.

But then there’s that problem with honesty again. Ms Forbes said now is not the time for a referendum, with which all unionists would heartily agree, and her view that sorting out the economy should be a priority will get three cheers from most except back-to-the-Stone-Age Greens. But how will kicking the independence can down the road play with those undecided SNP members, who might not have a leadership favourite but certainly want the end of the United Kingdom? What of Ms Regan, telling voters not to vote SNP if they don’t want independence? And of Health Secretary Mr Yousaf, panned last week by Audit Scotland for his department’s lack of transparency, and who has a similar problem with recall as his boss when it comes to his absence from the same-sex marriage vote?

Then there is the small matter of the police investigating the whereabouts of £600,000 raised to fund a referendum campaign that never was. From a position of certainty and strength, the SNP is descending into chaos, just as both Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer are getting into their stride, and everyone should be thankful the UK Government is set to block the deposit return scheme ─ which Toto would recognise as his morning feed, despite costing an estimated £2.8bn ─ because it disrupts the UK internal market.

SNP supporters must wish they were over the rainbow… but the SNP’s opponents are over the moon.