Scottish independence movement remains strong with the SNP best placed to lead it – Stewart McDonald

Humza Yousaf needs to govern well and sharpen his independence strategy.

After 16 years of government by the SNP, support for Scottish independence is now a firmly mainstream view across the country. Pro-independence sentiment straddles traditional demographic divides and, almost a decade after the 2014 referendum, recent polling carried out by Survation found that 48 per cent of Scots would vote for it tomorrow. While not yet the consistent and sustained majority we need, this nonetheless represents a tremendous achievement.

The power of being in government is, after all, the power to set the political weather. Remember David Cameron’s 2011 declaration that the UK “is a Christian country, and we should not be afraid to say so” and contrast it with Rishi Sunak’s statement, just over a decade later, that “of course this is a secular country”. These two completely contradictory statements were possible because national identities are not fixed in aspic – they are in constant flux, shaped as much by political leaders as by our own actions and values.

It is worth remembering that in Scotland, we can all too often kid ourselves into thinking that independence is inevitable or that we are an inherently more progressive country than our neighbours to the south. This is, and always has been, a comforting fiction: just think of the 1735 Witchcraft Act (perhaps an early precursor to the Internal Market Bill) that was drafted in Westminster to overturn Scottish legislation passed before the Union of the Crowns. It was met with outcry from Scots – not least the Lord Justice Clerk who said, in language that may sound familiar today, that the government in Westminster was failing to respect "Scottish political and religious considerations".

The Witchcraft Act passed and, with it, the practice of burning women alive in Scotland was finally outlawed, long after our neighbours in Britain and the rest of Europe. This may seem at first like a far-fetched comparison from centuries gone by, but I want only to drive home the fact that nothing about Scotland’s story is dictated by any kind of inherent national character. Nothing about our future is set in stone.

The future we build will be shaped by the leaders we choose. And when it comes to independence, the movement must choose a leader who will actively work on driving support consistently for Scottish self-determination above 50 per cent. The single best person to do that is an SNP First Minister in Bute House, telling a convincing story about Scotland’s future in Europe, but also driving a government agenda that makes a material difference to people’s lives.

It is for this reason that the same Survation poll should concern every person who wants to see an independent Scotland. Last week’s poll, when compared to one taken six months ago, found a decrease in the number of 2014 Yes voters intending to vote for the SNP in the next election. While the dangers of reading too much into one poll are manifest, members of my party should look at this snapshot of public opinion and ask themselves one question: why are some people who voted for major constitutional change in 2014 now looking elsewhere?

The obvious answer appears to be the resignation of Nicola Sturgeon and the events which followed. But the polling also shows that this is not true: while overall support for the SNP has remained largely unchanged since January, the slow, gradual decoupling of support for independence and intention to vote SNP has now been seen in three successive Survation polls. As ever, a tendency to focus on the day-to-day drama can blind us to the wider factors at play.

Humza Yousaf understands that building sustained majority support for Scottish independence may take time (Picture: Jane Barlow/PA)

I believe that these wandering voters can be split into two camps. First, there are those who voted Yes in 2014 but who no longer see independence as a salient political issue. Last year’s Supreme Court decision – which spelled out the ineluctable sovereignty of the Crown in Westminster and made clear that a second referendum cannot take place without the consent of the UK Government – has no small part to play in driving this belief. But even if independence may not be on the immediate horizon, it remains a prize worth fighting for.

The second group is made up of those who still recognise self-determination is in Scotland’s best interests but who have turned to other pro-independence parties. It is worth remembering, with three different pro-independence parties now represented in parliaments in Edinburgh and London, that it was the SNP who took the cause of independence from a fringe belief in the late-20th century to a popular and credible political future for modern Scotland; in mainstreaming our movement to a point where it enjoys the support of 48 per cent of the population and multi-party political representation, the SNP may have also weakened the once direct link between our party and the cause.

Humza Yousaf, therefore, has two tasks. First, he must govern well. Despite the unenviable first few weeks he has had, Humza is clearly determined to crowd out the noise and deliver a programme for government that responds to the three common strands of insecurity running through Scotland right now: economic insecurity, social insecurity and global insecurity.

Second, he needs to sharpen and flesh out his independence strategy, where the most immediate task is to start building sustained majority support. The strategy should be underpinned by a fresh level of seriousness that unapologetically resists the temptation to sell quick fixes and rejects short-termism, which would inevitably box in the First Minister further down the line – and in fairness to him, he understands that getting this right is more important than getting it quick. Establishing a new national pro-independence campaign body, tasked with building support across Scotland, would be a welcome development.

So, despite the pains of the past few weeks and some sobering polling, our cause remains strong. But absolutely nothing is inevitable. We’ve got work to do.

Stewart McDonald is SNP MP for Glasgow South