Scotland's next Health Secretary: Who's in the running, and who wants the 'poison chalice' anyway? – Joseph Anderson

As well as a new First Minister, Scotland’s medical professions are bracing themselves for a new Health Secretary. They have a heck of a task on their hands.

If the current incumbent, Humza Yousaf, is elected as First Minister, then obviously he will need to find a replacement. He has the backing of some of the SNP’s bigwigs, like Culture Secretary Angus Robertson, Deputy First Minister John Swinney and Stephen Flynn, the SNP’s Westminster leader.

However, if Finance Secretary Kate Forbes wins, it is almost certain that Yousaf will be sacked, given her accusations of “mediocrity” and the fiery exchanges between the two in the televised debates. Ash Regan, however unlikely her campaign to become First Minister appears, would also ditch Yousaf from the post.

The runners and riders to be the next Health Secretary come from two distinct categories: current Cabinet secretaries who could be moved into what is one of the more high-profile portfolios, and Cabinet ministers ready to be promoted to the top table.

Whatever happens in the SNP leadership contest, Humza Yousaf seems unlikely to continue as Health Secretary (Picture: Peter Summers/Getty Images)

In the former category, Angus Robertson would seem an obvious choice, given he has often been touted as a future leader of the party. However, given his decision to not throw his hat in the ring to be First Minister due to family commitments, he may not want one of the toughest government jobs going. Keith Brown could follow Yousaf’s footsteps in moving from justice to the health portfolio.

In the latter category, junior cabinet members who may be hoping for a promotion include Angela Constance, the minister for drugs policy, Maree Todd, the minister for public health, women’s health and sport, and Kevin Stewart, minister for mental well-being and social care. The Scottish Government’s ineffectual attempts to stem the flow of tragic drug deaths does Constance no favours, but should Forbes win the race to be First Minister, she is the only one of the three ministers with a health portfolio who has not backed Yousaf, and may be rewarded for this.

All this said, who would want the poison chalice? While the health portfolio would afford a minister the chance to effect real, transformative change for Scotland’s population, it’s fair to say they’d be inheriting a sorry state of affairs. Last week, top medics warned that NHS Scotland still remains “in the depths of crisis”, with an estimated 64 patients dying each month due to “dangerously long waiting times”.

The Royal College of Emergency Medicine Scotland said it was “extremely concerned about our patients and their safety, and for the welfare of staff who are struggling”, while the British Medical Association’s Scottish Consultants Committee said the Scottish Government’s claims that NHS staffing levels are at a record high was “not just demoralising, but incredibly insulting”.

According to the latest Public Health Scotland data, just 65.3 per cent of the 97,659 patient attendances at Scottish emergency departments in January were seen within the Scottish Government’s target of four hours. This is the third-lowest, four-hour performance since records began. Added to this, 13.4 per cent (13,055) of patients waited more than eight hours before being seen, admitted, discharged, or transferred, while 6.5 per cent (6,318) of patients waited more than 12 hours.

Whoever takes the helm has their work cut out for them.