Members of the SNP know better than most that by-elections are curious beasts. Those in Hamilton, however, offer a special kind of nostalgia – second only to the 2014 independence referendum. It was in the 1967 Hamilton by-election that Winnie Ewing stormed to a surprise victory over Labour, taking to the stage to cry “Stop the world! Scotland wants to get on!” and lighting the torch for decades of continuous SNP representation in Westminster ever since. A fact often forgotten, however, is that Winnie herself only bore that torch for a few short years: Labour took the constituency back in the 1970 general election.

By-elections, after all, are rarely about the future. Unlike general elections, where parties compete to offer voters the most credible and compelling vision of the years to come, such votes are fought firmly in the here and now. Always, by their nature, held in unexpected circumstances, by-elections offer the public a chance to express their views on the incumbent person or party and, as is the case here, on the circumstances which caused the by-election to take place.

It is no secret that my party fought the 2023 Rutherglen and Hamilton West contest on bad terms. Former SNP MP Margaret Ferrier broke the coronavirus regulations in what the leader of my party condemned at the time as the "worst breach imaginable". Add onto that a police investigation into party finances and the natural laws of politics, and the public anger becomes understandable. They have now expressed that anger at the ballot box. We’ve been skelped and there’s no point in pretending otherwise.

Although winning this seat was always going to be a big ask for my party, the scale of the Labour victory – even counting for a dismal turnout – means that this cannot be dismissed or diminished. A combination of apathy, a collapsed Tory vote, SNP voters staying at home and independence supporters lending their vote to Labour represents a new reality that we cannot wish away. This hasn’t come from nowhere. The electorate just changed the terms of the contest, and this is no time for nostalgia or continuity.

And whilst we should understand this result for what it is – an expression of anger at a parliamentarian who broke the coronavirus rules – it is a serious warning shot across our bows after 16 years in government. How we respond will be defining.

The Conservative party – equal parts lacking in political acumen and ambition – showed us this week what happens when parties confuse by-election results with universal political truths. Fearing impending losses at the upcoming general election, the governing party in Westminster has taken its narrow win in Uxbridge and South Ruislip and transmogrified it into a frankly lunatic election strategy underpinned by anti-environmentalism, disinformation, and conspiracy theories. This will do nothing but inflict further damage to the long-term economic prospects of the country and lengthen the number of years that the Tories spend in the electoral wilderness. It is a mistake only Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives could make.

As Winnie found out to her cost in 1970, by-elections are anomalies. Tides of political support can wash away just as easily as they can appear. However, as my party’s own success across the country in successive elections after 1967 demonstrates, by-elections may not be seismic events in their own right, but they can be foreshocks: early warnings that the tectonic plates are shifting below our feet.

Unlike geology, however, politics is not a science and nothing – if you will allow me just one more geological metaphor – is set in stone. The SNP can continue to win in Scotland if we can stay the course, showing the electorate that we have the right solutions to the problems of today, and the ambition to seize the opportunities of tomorrow. As my party continues to work to deliver in the interests of the Scottish people, addressing contemporary challenges and campaigning for self-determination, Humza Yousaf must be ambitious, sharp, strategic, and ruthlessly focused on governing well for the long-term.

Next week we will gather in Aberdeen for our 89th national conference. As well as debates on some of the biggest issues of our time – energy, technology, migration, healthcare, and public service reform – we will debate a leadership-sponsored motion on independence strategy. If that debate is to advance us, then it must be anchored in resolving the economic, social, and global insecurities that are ripping through communities like Rutherglen and Hamilton. We must build a political platform around prosperity, fairness, and resilience. Those are sound pillars of good government and the way to build a new independence movement.

If, however, we adopt a quasi-fundamentalist, short-term position that is solely about getting us through the next election with the core vote – abandoning the big and ambitious coalition we’ve built and that has allowed us to dominate Scotland’s centre ground – then it won’t be a strategy we’ve opted for, but an emotional spasm. There are no victories in becoming a fundamentalist tribute act. Just look at the Tories.

We must rediscover our national mission, but it must be married in the here-and-now and be fit for the future. To do that we need to keep thinking with the psychology of a modern, national governing party that engages with voters of all persuasions and has the policies to win them over.

Harold Wilson was Prime Minister when Winnie Ewing won in Hamilton. At his first Labour conference as leader, he delivered his famous “white heat of technology” speech that defined him as a moderniser and winner. That single sentence prompted immediate applause and caused the Canadian sociologist, Robert Mackenzie, to remark that Wilson had “moved the Labour party forward 50 years in 50 minutes”. That is the level of ambition my party now needs to discover. Nostalgia, our favourite pastime, is no longer our friend.

Stewart McDonald is SNP MP for Glasgow South

SNP must avoid quasi-fundamentalism and focus on good government – Stewart McDonald

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