Poland in a dilemma about marrying into eurozone

Some of us know the feeling. You meet your dream partner, you think they are the future and you get engaged. But then you discover she/he has monsters for in-laws and comes with so much damaged baggage that you can’t help but think your future is more of a nightmare than dream.

In a way, this applies to the Polish government and its dilemma over the euro. When the government committed the country to adopting the currency under its accession agreement to join the EU the euro still looked attractive. Poland’s economy, already busy trading with eurozone countries, would profit from the single currency and the future would be wonderful.

But then it all went wrong, the joys of the euro evaporated, and Poland was in trouble. It was betrothed to an increasingly unloved currency, and the value of any union was questioned.

So far, the government has managed to procrastinate over the euro by exploiting a clause in the accession treaty that allows Poland to adopt the euro at a moment deemed appropriate rather than on any fixed date. But pressure is mounting on the government led by Donald Tusk, the prime minister, to give a clear programme for joining the eurozone.

Given the experience of Ireland, Spain, Greece and now Cyprus, it may come as a surprise that anybody still wants to join the euro, but people do. Poland’s business leaders, eyeing easy trade with neighbouring countries, want the euro, and so do many in Poland’s government. So there are calls for the government to commit itself to a date.

But to do so would start a battle the government would struggle to win. Recent polls show that 60 per cent of a public that once brimmed with enthusiasm for the euro now reject it. Poland’s economy has been a bright beacon of success in recession-gripped Europe, and all that was achieved while retaining sovereignty over its own currency.

The government would also struggle to win over a political opposition suffering increasingly cold feet over the whole euro adventure. This political dimension is vital because to adopt the euro requires changes to the Polish constitution, and that requires a two-thirds majority in parliament – something the government does not have. To get the opposition on side the government has recently mooted the idea of bowing to its request for a referendum on the euro.

This, of course, raises the spectre of a definite “no”. But any referendum would be held in a few years time, and the euro crisis may have passed by then.

Yet what may not go away is the democratic debate surrounding the euro. There are Poles who feel that membership of the eurozone will bounce Poland and Polish influence to their rightful place at the top of the European table. But there are increasing numbers of Poles who see what is happening as the more unfortunate members of the eurozone are reduced to little more than colonies, with the big decisions being made for them in Brussels.

All this leaves the government in an unenviable bind. At the moment it is damned whichever way it chooses.

• Matthew Day reports for The Scotsman from Warsaw.