Paul Forsyth: ‘Who can lead us to a major finals? Levein? Wotte? No, it’s Platini’

Craig Levein, head coach of the national side? Mark Wotte, performance director of the Scottish Football Association? Or Michel Platini, president of UEFA? It sticks in the throat to admit it, but after seven consecutive failures to reach the finals of a major tournament, my money’s on the head of Europe’s governing body.

At least he doesn’t have a chronic shortage of facilities to contend with. Or a climate that inhibits the development of players. And he isn’t held back by clubs that refuse to see the wider picture. What he does have is the power to change the structure of international football so that mid-ranking countries such as Scotland can be more successful without getting any better. Given the lack of improvement these last 13 years, you have to like the sound of that.

The process is already under way. Representatives of all 53 UEFA members gathered in Cyprus last month to discuss the issues arising from a plan to do for the international game what the Champions League has done for its club equivalent. Just as Platini has sought, with a variety of ploys, to give more of Europe’s aspiring clubs a taste of the big time, so his organisation is seeking to increase opportunities, financial and otherwise, for Europe’s international also-rans.

Platini has his critics alright, not least for his failure to get tough on racism, but he has been a zealous reformer during nearly five years at the top of UEFA’s tree. The ambitions he is keen to fulfil during his second term in office might just be to Scotland’s advantage. While there have been grumbles about the decision to award the Euro 2016 finals to France – Platini’s homeland – you won’t hear the SFA complaining about the decision to increase the number of participating teams from 16 to 24.

It’s not subtle, but the 50 per cent rise in available places transforms Scotland’s prospects. If the qualifying process remains unchanged, two teams will progress automatically from each group, and the third place that Levein’s side had to settle for in their last campaign would earn them a play-off. Were they to break the habit of a generation and reach the finals themselves, they would be in one of six four-team sections with a chance to secure the third place that could even result in progress to the knockout stages.

So far so surreal, but the plan is not without its sceptics. Quite apart from concerns that the value of the tournament will be diminished by allowing almost half of the entrants to qualify, there are fears that the process, from start to finish, will be as long and boring as the new Europa League. Allowing as many as three to qualify from each of the nine groups is all well and good for the likes of Scotland, but the heavyweight nations, such as Spain, Germany and England, are likely to do so with two or three mind-numbing matches to spare. Already under pressure from the game’s most powerful clubs to reduce the number of international fixtures, Platini can ill afford to introduce more meaningless ones.

Which is why they were banging heads together in Cyprus last month, considering solutions that would revolutionise the competition. One idea is to introduce a two-phase qualifying process. First, there would be a quickfire round-robin stage incorporating 13 groups of four teams, with the winners of each section securing their place in the finals. The remaining 39 teams would then enter a two-round knockout stage that identified the other qualifiers. It is worryingly complicated, not least because the early qualifiers would be idle for too long, but it gives everyone two bites at the cherry, while a leaner schedule would mean that the dreaded summer slots could be dropped from the international calendar.

Better still, the theory is that member countries will earn more money from fewer competitive matches. The SFA has already struck a new, more lucrative television deal with UEFA as part of the latter’s plan to control commercial rights. The hope is that by marketing the product centrally, UEFA can make it as attractive as the Champions League. From 2014, Scotland will earn a guaranteed share of the revenue generated by the European Championship, which means that their pulling power will no longer depend on the glamour of their opponents. The SFA will not always have Spain to build its business plan around.

Having agreed deals with both England and Scotland that significantly increase their income, the onus is now on UEFA to persuade television companies that the football is worth it. To that end, all manner of new possibilities are under discussion, including a wall-to-wall “international weekend” that staggers kick-off times for the viewing public. Countries would organise double-headers so that they play Thursday-Sunday, Friday-Monday or Saturday-Tuesday. This has the added bonus of letting many players return to their clubs sooner than they do at present.

Having tweaked much of the club game in recent years, Platini now aims to preside over the renaissance of international football. He is frustrated to hear that players would rather win the Champions League than the European Championship. Whether an increase in the number of finalists adds to the event’s prestige remains to be seen, but it can only be good news for Scotland, who were one of just eight teams at Euro 92. Not since 1996 have they been among the 16 who have participated in the tournament’s climax.

In the days since Scotland’s latest failure, attentions have quickly turned to 2014, and the World Cup finals in Brazil, but they will not be any easier to reach. The Scots were able to beat only Lithuania and Liechtenstein in the last campaign, the latter by one goal – twice – so how are they going to finish second in a six-team group that also includes Croatia, Serbia, Belgium, Macedonia and Wales? And then win a play-off? You want to believe, but recent history cautions against it.

The most realistic target for Scotland is France, scene of their last appearance in a major finals, the 1998 World Cup. By 2016, Levein will have gone, leaving some lucky successor with an unprecedented opportunity on his hands. Platini also will have moved on, swapping UEFA for FIFA, assuming the politics works in his favour. And that, after all, is what this is about: politics, popularity, votes. If he helps Scotland to reach the finals of a major tournament, few in these parts will oppose his election.