Murdo Fraser: Scottish Tories move with the times

Party leader Ruth Davidson has changed her stance on the Scottish Parliament. Picture: Phil Wilkinson

ALBERT Einstein reputedly defined insanity as doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different outcome. The Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party has been slow to learn the truth of this observation from the great scientist. In recent decades, the party has been trapped in a vicious cycle of declining electoral support, falling representation and increasing irrelevance.

After the latest electoral setback in the Scottish Parliament election two years ago, when the Scottish Conservative support fell to below 13 per cent on the regional vote, the party was at a crossroads facing a choice of two alternative futures.

There were those who argued that no fundamental change in party structure or political direction was required, and what was necessary was to elect a fresh new leader who would present a modern face to the electorate, and work harder to try and communicate the message.

The other, much more radical, proposal involved finding a new vehicle to promote centre-right political ideas in Scotland to replace the Scottish Conservatives, coupled with a major shift in the party’s historic constitutional stance to embrace greater devolution to the Scottish Parliament.

There was a lively debate on these alternatives during the leadership election triggered by the resignation from that position of the popular Annabel Goldie.

Party members narrowly opted for the first of these  two approaches, and elected the new Glasgow MSP Ruth Davidson as party leader. She had declared in the process of the leadership election her opposition to any additional devolution of power, famously stating that the Scotland Act was a “line in the sand”.

Realisation that this stance was untenable fortunately came from the party in March, with Ruth’s announcement that she now accepted in principle the need for greater financial accountability for the Scottish Parliament, and that she would be establishing a commission under the chairmanship of Lord Strathclyde to produce a set of proposals to take this principle forward.

Crucially, this commission would report well in advance of the independence referendum date of September 2014.

A shift in policy of such a dramatic nature takes both leadership and courage. It is never easy for anyone to accept that in the past they were wrong, and this is particularly the case in politics where opponents are quick to seize on any inconsistency of position.

So, Ruth’s move was a strong one, to be welcomed and congratulated, and much of the criticism she received was misplaced. It is clearly in the Scottish Conservatives’ interests to embrace the devolution of further fiscal powers to Holyrood.

The creation of a Scottish Parliament with limited tax-raising powers simply created a class of politicians desperate to spend money, but with no accountability for where that money was raised. In such a political environment, it would be difficult always for a party of the centre-right to make the case for responsible spending and for lowering taxes to boost economic growth, when the proceeds of any such move would go to the London Treasury rather than the Scottish finance minister.

Moreover, adopting a more progressive fiscal policy allows the party finally to lay to rest the ghosts of our anti-devolution past.

Whatever the rights and wrongs of the stance we took in the 80s and 90s opposing the creation of a Scottish parliament, it cannot be argued that this did us anything but harm with the electorate, and allowed our political opponents to portray us as “anti-Scottish”.

A change in stance puts us – for the first time – on the front foot in terms of the devolution debate, rather than forever being the back markers, accepting reforms only reluctantly and getting no political credit whatsoever (and often enduring flak) for doing so.

Finally, in the context of the referendum campaign supporting greater fiscal devolution will be a key factor in achieving a substantial majority for staying within the UK. We know that there are substantial numbers of Scots who do not support independence, but nevertheless wish to see devolution strengthened within the Union.

It is by offering a credible and coherent package of further devolution in the event of a No vote that we attract this group to enthusiastically supporting the Better Together campaign in September 2014.

So, the change in policy direction makes sense on all levels. And there may already be hints that it is making a difference to the party’s electoral prospects.

An Ipsos Mori poll two weeks ago on voting intentions for the Scottish Parliament showed an increase in Scottish Conservative support from 13 per cent to  16 per cent. Merely a straw in the wind, perhaps, but this might be the first indication that embracing greater devolution will play a part in making the party electable once again. But if this is going to come to anything, then we have to follow through with a package of substantial new devolved powers.

It is well known that Lord Strathclyde is himself no personal enthusiast for further devolution, and his scepticism is shared by many of the very party grandees who helped ensure Ruth’s election as leader in the first place. Ruth cannot afford to let the hare she has set running be brought down by the big beasts before it has gone 50 yards. So, the Strathclyde commission will have to come up with something significant, substantial and credible, if there are to be political benefits both for the Scottish Conservatives and the Better Together campaign.

The question that remains is whether this will be enough to herald the long-awaited revival in Scottish Conservative fortunes. It remains a matter of debate as to whether the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party in its current manifestation is the best vehicle by which to promote centre-right political thinking in Scotland. Only future electoral tests will give us the answer to that question.

So, it is still too early to herald a new dawn. But we may at last be seeing glimmers of hope for the Scottish centre-right. By being willing to embrace such a radical change as we have just witnessed, perhaps the party has demonstrated that it is more ready to learn the lessons of the past than we first thought.

• Murdo Fraser is a Conservative MSP for Mid Scotland and Fife. He stood against Ruth Davidson for the party leadership in 2011