Liberal fightback against populism starts with defence of so-called 'elites' and necessary immigration – Ian Johnston

Populism can be a direct threat to democracy but also an insidious one that undermines faith in elected government

Ahead of the 2017 election, Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party published its manifesto, entitled “For the many, not the few”. Just like Donald Trump, who rages against “media elites”, “political elites” and assorted other elites, Corbyn wanted ‘the people’ to know he was on their side and who was to blame for all their troubles.

Whether left or right wing, this is populism 1.01. There has to be some kind of enemy against which to rally your supporters. Vaguely defined “elites” – portrayed as the undeserving rich who have lots of things that you don’t have and are intent on ensuring you stay in your place – are the internal enemy. And, of course, immigrants are allegedly a terrifying external threat. Mix in some nationalism and you have a heady cocktail of political poison that too many people are eager to swallow.

Anti-immigration sentiments were certainly part of Vladimir Putin's political toolkit. In 2019, he claimed liberals thought migrants should be allowed to “kill, plunder and rape with impunity because their rights as migrants have to be protected”. This was why, he argued, “the liberal idea has become obsolete. It has come into conflict with the interests of the overwhelming majority of the population”.

Trump, Hungary’s Viktor Orban, and a host of illiberal populists around the world express similarly hostile views. In Britain, a country where millions cheer on the migrant workers who grace our football fields, former Home Secretary Suella Braverman has compared immigration to an “invasion” and populists generally deride those who disagree as members of a liberal metropolitan elite, out of touch with ‘the people’.

In this narrative, there’s almost a conspiracy between immigrants and uncaring elites. And, what’s worse, populists claim a sinister, shadowy group that they call “The Blob” is actively thwarting their efforts at the heart of government so, just like Trump, they want to “drain the swamp”. What this means in reality, where this rhetoric is leading, is the politicisation of the civil service, turning them from impartial servants of the state into activists who serve only one master: the populists.

If Trump wins the US presidential election, he will almost certainly seek to rid the country of the officials and politicians, including many Republicans, who prevented his corrupt attempts to change the 2020 election result. If he’s elected, we could see the death of American democracy.

However, populism’s attacks on democracy are not always so blatant, they can be almost incidental. If immigration – or, indeed, Scottish independence – continues to be the big issue at election after election, more pressing priorities like the economy, the NHS and education will continue to be overshadowed.

In Scotland and the rest of the UK, public services are already in disarray. Yet SNP ministers continue to churn out pointless independence papers and Rishi Sunak is ploughing nearly a third of a billion pounds into a “bats***” crazy scheme to send a fraction of the tens of thousands of asylum seekers crossing the Channel to Rwanda in the hope – the hope – that this will deter them.

If democracy keeps failing to address real-world problems, eventually public anger may explode in an unexpected, chaotic way. And if the “elites” who know how to run a country have been swept away and our leaders are self-interested, power-hungry and prone to infighting, the consequences could be profound, particularly in a world run by Trump, Putin and China’s Xi Jinping.

Some may hope populism will collapse if Labour wins the next general election. Defeat for Sunak would surely see a change of Conservative leader but the resulting leadership contest would likely be between a mild populist and a much more Trumpian figure. Whoever wins, Labour can expect to be repeatedly attacked on the issue and, given they are not making a pro-immigration argument, their response will probably be measures that enable them to at least sound tough.

The ‘Overton window’ of what are considered acceptable views on immigration has shifted dramatically to the populist right. Such is the grip of anti-immigration sentiment on the Conservatives, once “the party of business”, that concerns about job vacancy crises in various sectors, particularly social care, are to be brushed aside. The message seems to be akin to Boris Johnson’s 2018 remark about industry concerns over a hard Brexit: “F*** business.” If Labour goes the same way, the argument will effectively be over.

Despite all the talk from politicians, net migration hit a record high of 745,000 in 2022. This was partly because business concerns were, behind the scenes, recognised and taken seriously. In the year to September, a total of 586,000 work visas were issued.

But the Sunak government has signalled this pragmatic approach is changing, with plans to raise the minimum income requirement for skilled migrant workers and also for British citizens who wish to bring family from overseas to the UK to £38,700. Falling in love with a foreigner is about to become a privilege that only the better off can enjoy, which sounds rather elitist to me.

When anti-immigration rhetoric – populists’ tried and tested means to win power the world over – is such a vote winner, the practical consequences don’t seem to matter. You’ll never hear it as a campaign slogan, but in summary, it’s basically: “F*** elites and migrants, business and the economy, even love and happiness – and vote for me.”

The truth is that we need the people that populists call elites and we need migrants. A country that defiantly dumbs down and fences itself off from the rest of the world risks becoming an isolated, malcontented backwater with a slowly atrophying economy.

Brexit was an act of self-harm performed while sneering at “experts” who raised concerns. If the UK is to lose its appetite for self-destruction and if democracy is to be protected, liberals – of all parties – must end the shameful and cowardly appeasement of populism in all its guises.