Lesley Riddoch: Sturgeon has shoulders for the job

Alex Salmond embraces his successor at the conference; few political partnerships are so close. Picture: Greg Macvean

Nicola Sturgeon will be sworn in as First Minister at Holyrood this week after closing her party’s weekend conference with a well-judged and widely acclaimed leader’s speech and a five-minute standing ovation. Many commentators suggest she has reached the pinnacle of Scottish politics with perfect timing. Actually, I think the road will be tougher than many predict, though not because of anything lacking in the formidable lady or the vibrant and vastly expanded party she now leads.

The media scrum around her tiny figure after a well-constructed closing speech on Saturday was testimony to the Sturgeon effect. After a decade-long apprentice as Alex Salmond’s anointed heir, the predictable victory of the sole contender has obscured its extraordinary significance. A young, intelligent, capable, left-wing, self-made woman now dominates Scottish politics – and remarkably only a few swiftly chided journalists put her dress sense and tartan heels before her impact and powerful prose. Who would have believed it possible in Macho Caledonia?

The MSP for Govan inherits a party that has become a quasi-movement – the largest in the UK, proportionally with momentum and optimism aplenty. Opinion polls rate her personally as Scotland’s most trusted politician and suggest the SNP could win as many as 52 of Scotland’s 59 seats in next year’s General Election. That gives real credence to claims that the SNP could hold the balance of power at Westminster and thereby extract home rule for Scotland and block the renewal of Trident.

CONNECT WITH THE SCOTSMAN

• Subscribe to our daily newsletter (requires registration) and get the latest news, sport and business headlines delivered to your inbox every morning

• You can also follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Google +

These are tough and immediate goals. But Ms Sturgeon’s first leader’s speech showed she’s ready to combine softball for Scots, pledging to double free childcare and tackle poverty, with hardball for UK political leaders, effectively offering to put Ed Miliband into No 10 only if he abandons austerity measures and removes Trident from the Clyde. Some think that’s a hostage to fortune since there’s little likelihood of Labour doing either. But it’s possible Westminster politicians need a face-saving excuse to dump Trident renewal and humouring the SNP could provide it. After all, in a world where Labour slumps to just one seat in Scotland – the latest Ipsos Mori projection – anything is possible.

Above all though, Ms Sturgeon has time to demonstrate competence in government and lay solid foundations before the next realistic opportunity for another independence referendum – something the SNP’s victory in 2011 never really gave Alex Salmond.

But therein lies the rub.

Firstly, Nicola Sturgeon made only one passing mention of the austerity that lies ahead. The latest Fraser of Allander forecast is upbeat about job creation (and childcare expansion will create more).

But massive cuts in public spending loom. Commentator Bill Jamieson predicts three years of deep cuts ahead and comments: “Continued protection of the NHS budget will result in cuts to non-protected areas being over 50 per cent higher than average – nearer 30 per cent over the full period.”

That’s a daunting prospect.

The SNP’s greatest strength since 2007 has also become a weakness – trying to please everyone and giving the impression there are only winners in loadsamoney Scotland. But delivering social justice in times of austerity cannot be done without priorities. Some No voters were attracted by the prospect of a more socially just Scotland, but scared by the prospect of paying for it. With tax-raising powers already in her gift and more on the way, Nicola Sturgeon will have to use them or cut some areas of spending.

Secondly, a new arena is about to emerge in Scottish politics. Of course, Westminster has always been there – but really only preoccupied Labour MPs, not Scottish voters. This year however, the London dimension will become very real – amplified by Alex Salmond’s likely return as a prospective MP. Not only does that offer the slightly undermining prospect of a “King over the Border” who is closer to UK politicians and London TV studios, it also probably means a shift from Holyrood as the main arbiter of Scotland’s fortunes. A sizeable SNP cohort in the Commons with Salmond at the helm would become important for its “king-making” potential in a hung UK parliament, leaving Ms Sturgeon with the hard task of keeping a public, party and media focus on Holyrood and policy changes needed to lay the foundations of a new Scotland.

Land reform is controversial for some and the Community Empowerment Bill has not recommended change to a local government structure described as unfit for purpose by Cosla. These are vitally important issues – but Alex Salmond’s return to Westminster will make far easier headlines. On the other hand, it would be a mistake to overplay a personality clash. There can be few political leaders and deputies who more obviously like and respect one another. Indeed, there’s the tantalising prospect that Scotland’s two top-rated politicians will play their bold, democratising agenda across two parliaments like an extended tag-team wrestling match – with help from Plaid Cymru and the Greens’ Caroline Lucas.

Indeed the appearance of Plaid’s Leanne Wood with Ms Sturgeon at Perth showed Britain the new vibrant, female and feminist face of independence politics – radically different from the tired, male warhorses slugging it out for No 10.

Supporters of independence like Bella Caledonia’s Mike Small see a straightforward division of labour for SNP politicians: “The first [group] sent to Westminster is essentially going to help in undertaking duties, while the second group are the midwives of the new Scotland.”

That’s only possible if Ms Sturgeon can change the narrative of the next Westminster election.

Since the days of Thatcher, general elections have been about stopping the Tories. Now, she must turn 2015 into a vote on home rule. Not easy – even though Alex Massie predicts: “The general election will be 59 mini-referendums on the national question.”

And of course the new leader must oversee the selection of Westminster candidates from an expanded pool including non-party members who must nonetheless stand “under the SNP banner”.

No small set of tasks face Nicola Sturgeon. But their scale meets Scotland’s aspiration for change – and her appetite for leadership.

SCOTSMAN TABLET AND IPHONE APPS

• Download your free 30-day trial for our iPad, Android and Kindle apps

• Keep up to date with all aspects of Scottish life with The Scotsman iPhone app, completely free to download and use