Leader: Every birth is a cause of joy but questions must be faced

WITHIN reach of any baby born across the planet this week is the glorious honour of being the seven billionth person on this planet.

While it is understandable such an event should give rise to questioning about how many lives can be sustained and the policies required to achieve a stabilisation in growth, let us not lose sight of the fact that the survival of humanity has been a remarkable achievement and the arrival of a new life – whether just under or just over the seven billion mark – is a cause for joy.

Our struggle for survival has prevailed in the face of a ferocious and continuing series of disasters and misfortunes: floods, plagues, famines, fires, wars and catastrophes such as to shake our very instinct for survival.

As for the future of the planet, it is, as it has always been, enveloped in fears and uncertainties about resource destruction and how a larger population can be sustained. Fears over poverty and starvation haunt the world’s most populous regions. Yet somehow, out of this, a new birth continues to be a far greater cause of hope than of foreboding.

Nevertheless, any serious examination of population trends soon darkens such a sanguine view. As Professor Sir Ian Wilmut spells out in The Scotsman today, the world’s population is expected to reach ten billion by the end of this century and may be even more if the predicted reduction in family size does not occur.

The population of Africa is predicted to treble. That, as Sir Ian notes, will have effects in other parts of the world, because the people will consume food that otherwise could be exported. Any such increase will pose a real challenge to those seeking to deliver the Millennium Development Goals, which include eradication of extreme poverty and hunger and a reduction in child mortality rates.

Promotion of the notion of contraception makes sense. But, he continues, it would be essential and beneficial even in countries like our own. “What is needed now is government promotion of the fact that having more than two children is imposing unacceptable demands upon the environment.

“Furthermore, there should be social encouragement for those who choose not to have children or have only one child.”

The problem with this excursion into countries with an ageing population is twofold. First, as countries such as Germany have recognised, a younger population is necessary to provide growth and sustenance for a sharp increase in the number of retirees. That is why its tax system now encourages families to have more children. The second is how a policy of population “cull” could be enforced. How in any event, would government calculate what is the optimal population size?

Mercifully, Sir Ian rejects the enforced single child policy of China as “inappropriate”. But what, compatible with liberty and dignity, may be considered appropriate?