Kenny Farquharson: Why Union’s fate depends on Fraser

I can sense your scepticism. Why on earth would an anonymous Tory’s bid to lead a party that won just 12.4 per cent of the popular vote in May’s election determine the future of the Scottish nation? Is he really that influential? Aren’t the Scottish Tories little more than an interesting sideshow these days?

Your scepticism is understandable, but misplaced. Because Fraser’s election as Scottish Tory leader will cause a number of important dominos to topple, and fundamentally alter the broader political landscape. Let me explain.

A Fraser victory will result in the Scottish Tories becoming transformed, with a new name, new autonomy and a number of new policies. Key among them will be a radical rethink on the constitution. At the launch of his campaign, Fraser said: “The Scottish people want more powers for their parliament without wanting independence. The Scottish people support a new form of unionism. So do I.”

And so to the referendum on Scotland’s future. My friends in the SNP assure me Alex Salmond is still determined to offer voters three options: 1. independence; 2. a turbo-charged form of devolution, with most of the available economic powers; and 3. the status quo, which by the time we get to the vote will be the Calman-Plus plan contained in the Scotland Bill currently going through parliament. So, which of these will Fraser’s new party back?

Definitely option number two, in my view. In a landmark moment during his campaign launch, Fraser ditched a belief that has hobbled the unionist parties for a decade: “Painful as it may be for us to admit, our analysis of the impact of devolution was overstated. The idea that devolution is inevitably a slippery slope to separation, and that any power devolved is a step closer to independence – such a message was too simplistic.”

Backing a powerhouse parliament within the Union ticks a number of centre-right boxes – self-sufficiency; responsibility; accountability; an end to dependency. The Scottish Tories, in their new guise, will be in the vanguard for Devo Max. And this falling domino will have wider consequences.

How will the other unionist parties react? For Scottish Labour, this will be one helluva wake-up call. At present I can detect little enthusiasm among key Labour figures for Devo Max. In fact, what I hear from senior Labour folk suggests that for all their talk of reconnecting with the priorities of their traditional voters, they seem deaf to the reality that most Labour supporters want a far more powerful Scottish Parliament, within the Union.

If anything can jolt Labour out of its complacency, it’s Tory support for Devo Max. Is Scottish Labour – the party of Keir Hardie, John Smith, Robin Cook and Donald Dewar – really going to be outbid on home rule by the hated Tories? Is Labour really going to be more unionist than the Conservatives? Has it come to this? I just cannot conceive of this happening. Surely this will be the moment Labour backs Devo Max, if not for reasons of principle then for reasons of political expediency.

An added impetus will come from the Lib Dems, who will have had a similar wake-up call from the newly tartanised Tories. I predict this will be the moment the Lib Dems rediscover federalism, which presently seems to have slipped down the back of the Coalition settee.

Fraser’s election will have recalibrated Scottish politics. Labour, the Tories and the Lib Dems will be backing Devo Max in the independence referendum – all the unionist parties, representing a majority of Scottish voters, backing the constitutional option that has long been the Scottish public’s favoured outcome. A confident and ambitious Scotland will be moving forward, but won’t be stepping into the unknown. It’s hard to see how even the most slick campaign by the SNP can counter the new settled will of the Scottish people. Independence, defeated at the referendum, will be off the political agenda for a generation.

But what if Fraser loses, and the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party carries on much as before under new leader Ruth Davidson (whose lack of constitutional radicalism has been a disappointment to many)? Well, given her public pronouncements to date, it’s hard to see the Tories doing anything other than campaigning for the status quo. The Conservatives will remain in their comfort zone, as the party that likes to say no.

Campaigning alongside them we can expect to see Scottish Labour, still hogtied by the notion that a more autonomous Scotland is a de facto victory for the SNP and must therefore be resisted at all costs. Faced with the clear and confident desire of a majority of Scots for more home rule within the UK, Labour will echo the Tory no. History will judge that Scottish Labour died in the ditch for the Union, and completely unnecessarily.

Devo Max may still find a supporter in the Lib Dems, but this is a party with the backing of 5.2 per cent of the electorate. The SNP campaign machine – well financed, 100 per cent committed and facing divided opposition – will take those confident and ambitious Scots by the hand and invite them to choose an independent Scotland.

And do you know what? I suspect in those circumstances a majority of Scots might very well accept that invitation. If the unionist parties won’t give Scotland what it wants, then maybe the Union will have had its day.