As Keir Starmer turns into Labour version of Boris Johnson, Tories are on course for early comeback

Something unexpected is happening at the Conservative Conference in Birmingham this week. Friends who are there report that the mood is surprisingly optimistic and upbeat, not what you might expect from a party which has just suffered a catastrophic defeat in a general election and might be assumed to be anticipating years in the wilderness of political opposition.

The mood is not just down to the energetic campaigns being fought by the four remaining candidates for the leadership, which understandably have a positive focus on the future. What is cheering the hearts of the representatives present is the early woes of Keir Starmer’s Labour government. The last few weeks have seen one set of bad news followed by another for the new Prime Minister elected with a landslide majority less than three months ago.

Winter fuel allowance

There are few issues in recent politics that have caused as much anger as the decision of the government to scrap the winter fuel allowance payable to pensioner households. This annual payment, worth up to £300, has been valued at a time we have seen substantial increases in energy bills as a result of the appalling Russian attack on Ukraine.

Now it is to go for most pensioners, leaving them worse off. It is estimated that this will impact nearly 900,000 pensioners in Scotland. And, with colder weather here than down south, the impact will be greater here. Labour MPs representing Scottish constituencies should be ashamed of themselves for voting for this.

Defiant Liz Truss upstages Tory leadership hopefuls

What has particularly angered people is that this change was never mentioned by Labour in the general election campaign in the summer. It feels like a betrayal for those who voted Labour without any clue being given that this is a cut they would impose.

Two peas from the same pod? Keir Starmer and Boris Johnson may be more alike than you might expect (Picture: Toby Melville/WPA pool) | Getty Images

Energy prices rising

It could hardly come at a worse time. Energy costs have risen from October 1 – up by an average of £149 – with an increase in the price cap. Yet pensioners, including many on low incomes, will now have less money to pay these bills. Nor is there any sign of the promise from Labour to cut energy bills by £300 for each household being delivered either.

We have seen the announcement of the creation of Great British Energy, to be headquartered in Aberdeen. But we are still none the wiser as to what exactly this new entity will do, and how exactly, if at all, it will deliver the lower bills promised. With the retail energy market already highly competitive, it must be doubtful whether a state-run enterprise can compete on efficiency with the private sector.

Labour, of course, try to blame the previous Conservative government for the choices they are making, alleging a ‘black hole’ in the public finances. But, as various experts have pointed out, a large part of this is made up from the above-inflation pay rises to public sector workers paid by Labour. They have to take responsibility for their own decisions.

The Labour Budget is due at the end of this month and we can expect to see even more benefits cuts and tax rises. Fuel duty, frozen for years under the Conservatives, could be hiked up, causing issues for motorists. We might also see changes to inheritance tax, capital gains tax, or even new taxes introduced to fill the black hole Labour have created.

Arguments against Johnson turned on Labour

Starmer’s bad news doesn’t end there. We have seen a steady drip of stories about gifts of clothing, use of properties, and free tickets to sports events and concerts to senior Labour figures from the Prime Minister down to backbench MPs. There is nothing illegal in politicians accepting such generosity, as long as the gifts are properly declared, but the public looking in will wonder why already well-paid public servants are being given designer suits and spectacles for free when they could afford to buy their own.

Labour in opposition benefited from the public perception of the Boris Johnson-era Conservative leadership being seen to be out of touch with the public. Now they are in power themselves, the arguments they deployed against the Tories are being turned on them.

This point was well made by the Labour MP for Canterbury, Rosie Duffield, when she resigned from the party at the weekend, citing the donations row as her primary reason for quitting. In her resignation letter, she said: “Someone with far-above-average wealth choosing to keep the Conservatives’ two-child limit to benefit payments which entrenches child poverty, whilst inexplicably accepting expensive personal gifts of designer suits and glasses costing more than most of those people can grasp – this is entirely undeserving of holding the title of Labour Prime Minister”.

Duffield has a history of disputes with Starmer over gender issues, but her description of him as “more interested in greed and power” than making changes to the country will sting. And it seems that her comments are reflective of a wider public mood. According to a weekend poll from Opinium Research, Starmer’s net approval ratings have collapsed, now at minus 30 per cent, down a staggering 49 per cent from where he started as Prime Minister.

Choosing the right leader

Against that background, it is no wonder many of those who voted Labour in July are experiencing ‘buyer’s remorse’, and regret the choice that they have made. It is hard to remember a government of any colour which has made such a dismal start. It has been a very short honeymoon.

So Conservatives in Birmingham are more optimistic than one might expect. The challenge now is choosing the right leader who can capitalise on Starmer’s woes, narrow further the opinion poll gap with Labour, and set a direction of policy that will broaden the party’s appeal. That will be the focus for members over the next few weeks, and we had better get it right.

Murdo Fraser is a Scottish Conservative MSP for Mid-Scotland and Fife