Joan McAlpine: Let’s soak up the tired punches and bide our time

THE status quo is fighting for survival. All those elites and mediocre middle men who owe their positions to an unequal union that disenfranchises most Scots are desperate. They see time running out, their status evaporating with every passing moment. So they grasp for anything which might batter down Scottish self-confidence.

That does not mean the “no change” brigade is particularly united, well-organised or informed. They lack a strategy. Their only defence is attack, deploying the usual – or should that be the ubiquitous – suspects to fight on their behalf. And so we have the CBI’s Iain McMillan warn of a darkness descending on the land, were Scotland to go forth into the world. It’s apocalyptic stuff and, like the Book of Revelation, unreliable surmise.

A few within the independence movement are nevertheless worried the fear-mongering will have an effect. How long will we keep up the positivity under this rain of punches? When do we come back fighting?

To extend the pugilistic metaphor, they would do well to remember the most famous fight of all, the Rumble in the Jungle between Muhammad Ali and George Foreman, when the victor spent most of his time on the ropes. Ali conserved his energy and Foreman grew increasingly enraged – and exhausted. Ali took that calculated risk because he believed in himself. Scotland would do well to develop the same conceit and come back stronger when the time is right.

There is no shortage of material, and we can add to it and develop it in the months and years ahead. We have a receptive audience, keen to hear positive arguments for change. Another came this month, from the Journal of Economic Growth, which is ranked fourth in the world in its academic field. The prestigious, peer-reviewed publication predicts Scotland is likely to become independent in the future and furthermore will benefit from this change in status. The finding is based on mathematical modelling by a group of researchers working across continents, from Moscow through Madrid to the US. Their results grew out of a research project in 2006 which found that artificial, multi-nation conglomerate states, such as the UK and Spain, tend to have lower rates of economic growth. Researchers found the Basque country would also benefit from independence.

The study, entitled The Stability and Break Up of Nations: A Quantative Analysis, concluded that Scotland and the Basque country would have more money for public expenditure with the fiscal flexibility and control of resources that full sovereignty could deliver.

None of this should come as much of a surprise, given that Scotland’s geographical share of oil reserves is currently valued at £1 trillion using the calculation method favoured by the US Department of Energy. The official data compiled by the Civil Service, the Government Expenditure and Revenue Statistics, shows Scotland in a very comfortable position vis-à-vis the rest of the UK. Scotland has now been in a stronger financial position than the UK as a whole for each of the last five years. We generated 9.4 per cent of UK tax with 8.4 per cent of the population – the equivalent of £1,000 extra for every man, woman and child in Scotland.

These figures are indisputable. Expect to know them by heart by the time the referendum polling booths open. However, there is more to the strategy than winning the macro-economic numbers game, important as that is. There are the intangible benefits of independence, not least Scotland’s enhanced global visibility.

An SNP victory in May put Scotland on front pages and news bulletins from San Fransisco to Beijing. Newspapers and TV networks across the globe spoke about this country’s successes, our sense of optimism, our renewable energy, the wealth of our natural resources, the innovation and talent of our people, the standing of our universities and our progressive politics, encompassing free education and nuclear non-proliferation.

Our development and tourism agencies work hard to get positive international coverage for our country and generally do a fine job. But the attention Scotland received after 5 May was worth billions in terms of branding, marketing and advertising. Not bad given the zero spend.

Now imagine that coverage times a thousand. Imagine the excitement on the morning after a positive vote on independence. May 5, 2011 generated a heatwave of excitement. Independence day is therefore likely to be something of a supernova in PR terms.

The dozens of nations that have become independent since 1990 have hardly looked back. But the likelihood is that Scotland will be even quicker off the starting blocks. We already own one of the most respected cultural footprints in the world. It ranks 14 out of 50 in the Anholt-GfK Roper Nation Brands Index. The independent index, used by many governments including our own, places Scotland equal to and ahead of many sovereign nations including New Zealand and Ireland.

Now, if we can get into the top 20 when we are not – at least officially – a sovereign territory, where will we be with a seat in the United Nations?

There is nothing quite so popular as seeing a people celebrate, take control, assert confidence – all in a civic, democratic manner that doesn’t put down anyone else. Time magazine earlier this year put Scotland top of its list of the “The World’s Aspiring Nations”. International observers are excited both by us and for us.

Independence is almost always viewed as a step forward, not back. Personalise the word and the same applies. The young person strives to be independent of his or her parents. The generations stay close, they help each other, but they do their own thing.

The same applies to the family when the older person strives to be independent in their own home, free to make dignified choices. It’s called self-respect. You cannot measure it. But as Ali knew only too well, those who possess it feel great, and are never on the ropes for long. Everyone loves a winner and the world is willing us on.

• Joan McAlpine is an SNP MSP for the south of Scotland