In recognising Hamas for what it is, Humza Yousaf has shown true leadership – John McLellan

The First Minister, whose wife has relatives in Gaza, deserves our sympathy for the dreadful situation he and his family are facing

Events, my dear boy, events. The apocryphal words not spoken by ex-Prime Minister Harold Macmillan, or Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s Black Swan, may be hackneyed ways to describe how the unexpected throws best-laid plans to the wind, and this weekend could prove to be one of those moments.

While violent tension is ever-present in the Middle East, who could have predicted the world’s most-renowned intelligence and security service would fail to detect the build-up and launch of such lethal force as that unleashed by Hamas at Israel from the Gaza Strip? The backlash for the deaths of an estimated 700 Israelis ─ including 200 young people at a party ─ and the kidnap of women and children will be severe and, the human tragedy aside, the implications of the new war could be as great as those of the Yom Kippur War, the 50th anniversary of which these attacks coincide.

Then, the oil shortage resulting from Israel’s humiliating defeat of the Arab alliance, combined with industrial action, produced the 1974 energy crisis and the disastrous three-day-week which brought down Edward Heath’s Conservative government. Unlike then, significant Arab nations, particularly Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain have been seeking close relationships with Israel ─ the UAE signed a free-trade deal this year, and an Israeli embassy has opened in Bahrain ─ and destabilisation is thought to be behind the assault’s timing. As such, it could yet escalate into a conflict across the Middle East which will test Western resolve at a time when the pro-Ukraine alliance is showing signs of strain.

But if Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is as close to a black-hat/white-hat conflict as possible, the same cannot be said of Israel-Palestine, as the pro-Palestine banners at Celtic Park on Saturday testified. Under no other circumstances is it possible to imagine vocal support being expressed at any British football ground in support of an action which has resulted in the same civilian death toll as seven Hillsborough disasters.

It’s only when Israel is the target that British politicians like ex-Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn feel able to suggest the problem is not Hamas, but the existence of the Jewish state. “We need a route out of this tragic cycle of violence: ending the occupation is the only means of achieving a just and lasting peace,” he said at the weekend, knowing Israel does not occupy Gaza. Similarly, Green MSP Ross Greer was emboldened to weigh in on X (formerly Twitter) to say: “Palestinians have a clear right under international law to defend themselves, including by attacking their occupiers”, although he added neither side had a “right to massacre civilians”. Like Mr Corbyn, Mr Greer pinned the blame on Israeli occupation. As if for emphasis, fellow Green MSP Maggie Chapman said on social media: “What’s happening in #Palestine is a consequence of #Apartheid, of illegal occupation & of imperial aggression by the Israel state.”

Despite having ejected Mr Corbyn, the new Middle East conflict poses questions for Labour leader Keir Starmer and how he manages the strong pro-Palestinian sentiment still running through the left of his party, and for SNP leader and First Minister Humza Yousaf the problem could have been greater had the Greens stuck to their previously strong anti-Israel line, having backed an economic boycott of “racist apartheid” Israel and for Hamas to be removed from international terrorist lists.

Perhaps sensing the public mood of condemnation, Mr Greer then performed a handbrake turn to declare “we condemn Hamas without hesitation”, when he hadn’t just hesitated but excused them before the full horror of what had happened had sunk in. There was no such hesitation from the SNP’s External Affairs Secretary Angus Robertson, who quickly condemned Hamas on X. “The scale and horror of Hamas terrorism against Israel and Israelis sadly keeps growing,” he wrote. “There is no justification for their actions.”

As Mr Yousaf tries to take stock of the trouncing his party received in the Rutherglen by-election, pressure is mounting to end the Bute House deal with the Scottish Greens, which has put Mr Greer’s party in the driving seat of so many controversial policies, like the botched deposit return scheme and the net zero housing plan which threatens to impose vast expense on thousands of homeowners and the destruction of the property value of thousands of others.

Apart from the political arithmetic which keeps the deal intact, there is no suggestion Mr Yousaf merely tolerates the arrangement because of cynical convenience, but because he buys into their worldview, as he enthusiastically explained during the leadership campaign. With family in Gaza on his wife’s side, yesterday Mr Yousaf was clear about the dreadful personal situation he faces, for which he deserves full sympathy. It was also wise to refer to Hamas terror and address any doubt there might be about his attitude towards its actions, but describing questions about the Greens and the Bute House agreement as “crass” doesn’t make serious doubts about their judgment disappear.

While voters appreciate politicians with clear convictions, it does not require polling analysis to recognise this does not extend to apologies for terrorism. And although how public opinion develops from here might depend on the scale of the Israeli response, the Greens recognised, even if belatedly, the danger of putting Mr Yousaf in an impossible position: continue a political relationship with a party happy to support a terrorist organisation, or end the guarantee of parliamentary votes.

Even so, as the leader of the government party heading for the collapse of its political dominance, Mr Yousaf still needs to take a leaf from the Labour playbook and reinforce the SNP’s place in the centre ground. Thankfully, both the SNP and Greens knew there could be no sympathy with likes of the Green Brigade, or others in the SNP would not have waited for a catastrophic general election to bring about change. There is no question this is an extremely difficult time for Mr Yousaf and his family, and in recognising Hamas for what it is, he has demonstrated worthiness of a place on the front of Time Magazine.