Immigration won’t solve all Scotland’s problems – Brian Wilson

Migrants are hugely welcome in Scotland, but they shouldn’t be seen as a panacea for all Scotland’s ills, writes Brian Wilson.
Migrants bring new skills to Scotland but it is more important to educate the people who are already here (Picture: Jane Barlow)Migrants bring new skills to Scotland but it is more important to educate the people who are already here (Picture: Jane Barlow)
Migrants bring new skills to Scotland but it is more important to educate the people who are already here (Picture: Jane Barlow)

A YouGov poll this week suggested that 45 per cent of Scots think there has been too much immigration into Britain over the past few years. This should not come as a surprise.

The consistent message from polls on such issues is that there is not much difference between what Scotland and the rest of the UK thinks, however often we are assured of our “otherness”.

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Scotland has been less affected by recent immigration than the UK as a whole, relative to population. As always with this subject, however, the gap between perception and reality is substantial – and generalities conceal the modesty of statistics.

National Records for Scotland recently published their estimates for mid-2018 which show a 0.2 increase in population over the previous year, attributable entirely to in-migration. Translated into numbers, that means an extra 13,300 people living in Scotland.

There was a net increase through migration of 20,900. By far the biggest source of these new Scots was “rest of the UK” which provided 10,000 net. That left just 10,900 from the rest of Europe and indeed the world. The breakdown in countries of origin is not available, says NRS.

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It is reasonable to assume that most, but by no means all, of the 10,900 came from within the EU. In-migration peaked a decade ago following its extension to include countries like Poland, Bulgaria and Romania. These numbers have dropped away but probably still account for a few thousand net.

In the course of 2017-18, 32,900 came to Scotland from “overseas” while 22,000 departed to “overseas”. A society of more than five million people should be able to assimilate such movements very comfortably, as the majority of Scots would concur.

There is, however, another side to that coin. If a net 10,900 influx from “overseas” does not disrupt Scottish society, which is self-evident, then it is unlikely to be its saviour either. The portrayal of EU in-migration as our economic elixir owes more to politics than reality and needs to be challenged before the myth takes hold.

Whether Brexit happens, and whatever visa regime applies, there will still be “overseas” in-migration to the UK and Scotland. It might be fewer or more than 10,900 a year but the idea our economic holy grail hangs on the number which emerges is seriously unconvincing.

Apart from anything else, it is dangerous to put too many eggs in a basket of hope that people who come here will also stay. Migration follows well-worn cycles. People in poorer countries seek out wealthier ones to earn money and send some of it back. Then as their homelands develop, some stay and most return. That is already happening with the post-EU expansion generation.

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If we make in-migration – Brexit or no Brexit – so central to future assumptions, where will we turn next when we run out of East Europeans? I am all in favour of a humane, welcoming immigration policy but would be very wary of defining “freedom of movement” as the essential guarantor Scotland’s future prosperity.

Look at it another way. Fourteen out of 32 local government areas suffered population decline during 2017-18. These were mainly rural and islands, though the biggest fall was in industrial Inverclyde.

I doubt if a shortage of in-migrants was the problem in any of these places – rural or urban – rather than the more familiar issues of few employment opportunities, lack of affordable housing, poor public transport and so on.

Scotland is far from homogenous. In the Western Isles, only six per cent of those who in-migrated during the year were from “overseas”. In Inverclyde, it was five per cent. In both Glasgow and Edinburgh, however, the figure was 29 per cent.

The future of communities depends on tackling realities which affect them. Skills and diversity brought by in-migrants are hugely welcome. However, they are no substitute for addressing deep-rooted challenges which persist in each part of Scotland.

A better educated society and a strategy for rural population retention are more crucial than relying on 10,900 immigrants a year to make the difference.