If SNP leadership contest leads to new era of cooperation, not confrontation, Scotland will be better for it – John McLellan

Readers may be aware the Scottish Government is in a spot of bother over plans for a 20p deposit on bottles and cans. You might also have heard there has been a bit of a kerfuffle over gender recognition reform, which departing First Minister Nicola Sturgeon repeatedly points out is after six years of consultation.

The gender legislation was passed by the Scottish Parliament despite warnings there would be problems with the UK Equality Act, and sure enough in stepped Scotland Secretary Alister Jack to signal the Bill would be blocked. Similarly, the regulations behind the deposit return scheme were agreed in 2020, so the Scottish Government has had over two years to prepare for August’s launch, yet it was only earlier this month that it sought an exemption from the UK Internal Market Act because of the implications for cross-border trade.

Two pieces of legislation with implications for the UK Government, both years in the making, yet both are mired in cross-border political problems late in the day. But back in 2013, SNP’s 670-page Scotland’s Future prospectus for the independence referendum, claimed that from the declaration of victory on the morning of September 19, 2014, it would take only 18 months for independence to be achieved. “The period between the referendum and independence will see negotiations with the rest of the UK, represented by the Westminster government, and with the EU and other international partners and organisations,” it said. “Following these preparations and negotiations, Scotland will assume our status as an independent country on March 24, 2016.”

It’s a fair bet the SNP hierarchy never really expected to have to colour in any of their nation-building sketches, but when there are difficulties with a bottle deposit scheme, it’s also a reasonable assumption that breaking up a 300-year-old union would take a lot longer than a year and a half, just as it’s seven years since the Brexit referendum and Northern Ireland is still in limbo, despite Boris Johnson’s 2019 promise to “get Brexit done”. Quick fixes are all the rage in modern politics, despite their absence in reality, and at the top of the SNP there still seems to be a belief in pushing simplistic solutions, with leadership favourite Humza Yousaf now talking about snap elections to force another referendum.

Some in the independence movement 'reasonably question if Scotland is ready, yet, to transition to full statehood', according to SNP MSP Ben Macpherson

At least he acknowledges there is no consistent majority backing for independence so it’s a hypothetical point for the consumption of SNP members whose votes he seeks to attract, but even recognising inconsistency in support is new for the SNP. After all, it’s only three weeks since Ms Sturgeon’s resignation speech in which she said she was “firmly of the view that there is now majority support for independence in Scotland”, when in the seven polls since her announcement only one put Yes ahead, the latest at just 39 per cent.

As Conservatives well know, leadership contests produce public scrutiny of arguments which might otherwise remain internal discussions (unless someone hands a journalist their WhatsApp messages) and the current SNP tussle is not only exposing a clash of approaches the party has not experienced for over 20 years, but is emboldening others to express views which until recently would have been regarded as career-ending heresy. Into that category falls Leith SNP MSP Ben Macpherson’s article for Scotland on Sunday, in which he wrote it would take years to set up a new independent state. “What I have learned from my experience as minister for social security is that the practical implementation of constitutional change takes time if it is to be done securely and effectively,” he said. “Wishful thinking and good intentions will not change that and anyone suggesting there are shortcuts is not being upfront about the practical realities.”

That’s entirely true, although why it took Mr Macpherson to become a government minister to recognise what’s blindingly obvious to more than a few is another matter. “In 2014 I believed that transitioning to an independent state would be doable fairly quickly. I have humbly since learned the hard reality,” he said. But it is his questioning of Scotland’s readiness for independence that will raise hackles within the SNP, because for a nationalist minster to openly suggest Scotland isn’t ready for something his leader wanted putting to the vote this coming October is breaking new ground. Perhaps this was what Ms Sturgeon really felt as she penned her valediction, but it’s unthinkable that she or other senior party figures would have admitted that some in the independence movement “reasonably question if Scotland is ready, yet, to transition to full statehood”, or that they would be justified in doing so.

This is the kind of stuff the unionist opposition has been saying for years, always then to be accused of “talking Scotland down” as the SNP tried to sustain the myth that party and country were interchangeable and that those who opposed them also opposed Scotland. These are the conditions in which extreme nationalists can liken those who are not independence enthusiasts to Norwegian Nazi puppet Quisling and, sure enough, Mr Macpherson was ripped to shreds by SNP supporters on social media for his trouble, dubbed a “sell-out” for expressing a reasonable view and some calling for his deselection.

Of course, keyboard warriors aren’t representative of the population at large, and as the ballots go out to the 78,000 SNP members, the two leading candidates both acknowledge support for independence is not strong enough to keep pressing for a referendum, inviting dismay if they argue for a slower-paced strategy than Ms Sturgeon’s more aggressive approach. Mr Macpherson is backing Mr Yousaf, but with Kate Forbes’ team still quietly optimistic the Finance Secretary can get over the line, maybe he is hedging his bets as a voice of reason and consensus. Whether it advances the cause of independence or not, if cooperation replaces the era of confrontation, then Scotland will be the better place Mr Macpherson wants to see.