Humza Yousaf’s first Programme for Government will speak volumes about his priorities – John McLellan

Will the First Minister opt for aggressive, left-wing nationalism and climate alarmism or focus on the cost-of-living crisis?

Today is Humza Yousaf’s big day. He gets to present his first Programme for Government to the Scottish Parliament but, depending on the timing and outcome of the general election as much as today’s content, it could be his last. Unfortunately for him, attention could be diverted by his predecessor, with a reportedly defiant Nicola Sturgeon set to contribute to the debate which follows his statement with a speech on child poverty in which she will call for cross-party action.

Whether this includes the Conservatives is another matter. It was only last October that her approach to political consensus was illustrated by her admission to the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg that “I detest the Tories and everything they stand for”. But, unburdened by responsibility for all the Scottish Government’s functions, she can concentrate on what matters most to her.

Ms Sturgeon has never hidden her deep-rooted socialism, and while her political contributions have been relatively rare since her resignation in March ─ and subsequent arrest without charge in connection with the police investigation into alleged embezzlement at the heart of the SNP ─ last week she made a small but notable intervention. Her previously prodigious posts on the site formerly known as Twitter are down to a trickle, mostly about books and authors, but on Friday she commented on a fiery speech by Edinburgh SNP councillor Kate Campbell at the previous day’s full council meeting in which she took Labour to task for not supporting her move to force Edinburgh Leisure to pay the non-statutory, real living wage to all staff.

Quoting Labour icon Aneurin Bevan’s proclamation that “the language of priorities is the religion of socialism” was too much for a shambolic Labour group and its councillors performed a handbrake turn and voted with the nationalists and Greens. As a result, council officers have now to find a way to force the arms-length company to find £473,000 a year, which the Conservatives equate to shutting three swim centres, when its budget is already £736,000 in deficit. “Bravo, Kate,” said Ms Sturgeon, with the clapping emoji. “Outstanding.”

Indeed. For causing the Labour group, particularly its leader Cammy Day, so much embarrassment, Councillor Campbell has every reason to be chuffed with herself, and although it didn’t make headlines this little vignette illustrates the problem facing Mr Yousaf as he tries to come up with ways to reverse the rising tide of Labour fortunes which could yet cost him his job. It was too easy for Ms Sturgeon when the main opposition was Conservative and Labour was unelectable to portray herself as the standard-bearer of the one true Socialist faith whose ambitions for Scotland were denied, as she would have everyone believe, by perfidious Tories.

Now Labour is getting its act together, Mr Yousaf is finding it hard to counter because it’s been in the doldrums for so long it isn’t responsible for much of any substance. It’s therefore an advantage to have an undisciplined, malleable Labour rabble responsible for Edinburgh, so nationalists can point to the City Chambers and claim this is what will happen if they're defeated. And for that Mr Yousaf can thank Labour leader Anas Sarwar for insisting his group could not repeat the deal which kept the SNP in office in 2017-22.

It also illustrates the dilemmas both parties face in the battle to dominate Scotland’s urban Central Belt, without which Sir Keir Starmer will struggle to enter Number 10 and the SNP can’t deliver independence. Internal SNP research revealed by the Sunday Times showed support for that party falling 14 points amongst 25 to 49-year-olds and by 11 per cent in the middle classes, and decisions such as that forced on Edinburgh Council last week are not going to help if families find leisure facilities closed because left-wing councillors have pushed the business further into debt. Socialists don’t have a monopoly of the language of priorities, any more than they can ignore the language of consequences and it is only by making decisions that those consequences must be faced. Last week Edinburgh’s Labour group failed that test and no wonder the SNP was cock-a-hoop.

As Mr Yousaf marched down the Royal Mile on Saturday at the head of another independence rally, he must have known that his party’s own data proved the cost of living, not separation, should be his priority. And as he tweaks his speech today, how does an administration which has made giveaways its hallmark regain the crucial support of the middle classes who are footing the bill through higher taxation and therefore forced into hard choices of their own? The tougher things are, the less likely the “squeezed middle” is to tolerate more welfare hand-outs from which they derive little benefit while paying more income tax than in England and with the prospect of punitive council tax bills looming. That’s why a recent poll for the Sun revealed two voters in three support the two-child benefits cap, with the so-called “rape clause” exemption, which Labour will not commit to abolish. If the SNP thought this was a “gotcha” moment, their own research shows why it’s anything but.

It's also why, however comfortable Mr Yousaf may be with the Greens alliance, the accelerated net-zero programme demanded by his hard-left partners will push more middle-ground voters away from the SNP, even if they still harbour long-term ambitions for independence. Voters are neither ideological nor stupid. If thousands find themselves compelled to shell out for new heating systems and double-glazing, just as they are now being forced to buy new cars to comply with low emission zones of limited, if any, value, there will be a reckoning.

Whatever new legislation Ms Yousaf unveils today won’t be in place before the general election, but it will set a tone. The choice for him is whether it’s that of his predecessor, or one which recognises that impatience isn’t the preserve of aggressive, left-wing nationalism or climate alarmism.