Henry McLeish: Overturning Roe v Wade gives boost to Biden before mid-term elections

Yesterday’s Labour Day holiday in the US marked the start of the official campaign for the mid-term elections in November.

People protest outside the US Supreme Court after the Roe v Wade ruling was overturned

For President Biden, the post Covid period has been challenging. A slump in his poll approval ratings, major threats to the economy, very public and bitter divisions within the Democratic party over major legislative priorities, concerns about his age, fitness and frailty and his ability to deal with a country best described as a decaying democracy, were casting major doubts over his presidency and the prospects for the Democratic party in November.

And then a bombshell from the Supreme Court. Right leaning judges forming a 6-3 majority obliterated any sense of judicial impartiality, usurped the role of Congress in the making of public policy and dramatically removed US wide abortion rights by overturning the landmark judgement on Roe v Wade.

Approaching the mid- term elections, opinion polls are indicating the loss of the House of Representatives and the Senate - where the casting vote of Vice President Kamala Harris gives the Democrats a majority.

President Joe Biden speaks outside Independence Hall last week

For the Democrats, however, something remarkable might be happening. Biden certainly remains “under water” in national approval ratings, but a confluence of issues may turn this around, including public reaction and dismay surrounding the overturning of Roe v Wade by the US Supreme Court. For many Americans this represents a step too far, making little sense to a country where there is significant popular majority support for abortion rights, which have been in place in place for 50 years.

After welcoming the dismantling of abortion rights, the Republican party seems less confident of that position and are now seeing divisions within their own ranks as candidates, contesting primary races for the November elections, face a public backlash. Strengthening this backlash is the fear and worry of what the Supreme court might do next. LGBTQ protections, same sex marriage, civil rights, reproductive rights, schools, and religion could be vulnerable to this backward lurch to the right.

The United States is a remarkable country. There is however no escaping the deep divisions, the potential for civil strife, the poverty and inequality impacting great swathes of the population, a political discourse where truth, trust, and tolerance are absent and where transactional and factional politics dictate the nature and extent of change, not the needs of the voters. Mid-term elections are taking place against a background of a country on the edge, ignoring the warning of Abraham Lincoln that, “a house divided against itself cannot stand.”

Any debate about America’s democracy and the forthcoming elections must carry a political health warning, as the country continues to tear itself apart. Political remarks such as Biden’s reference to rescuing the “soul of the nation” and accusing MAGA Republicans of being, “semi fascist,” are increasingly the language of political discourse.

A recent, YouGov-Economist opinion poll suggests more than two fifths of Americans believe civil war is at least “somewhat likely in the next ten years” and this figure rises to more than half among “self-identified strong Republicans.” Reinforcing this sense of dread and dystopia, are comments made by senior Republican Lindsey Graham when he predicted “riots in the street” if Trump is indicted over the “steal” of classified documents after leaving the White House. Adding even more colour to a surreal debate, one Republican commentator described a number of his party’s election candidates as “Bat sh*t crazy”. My American friends reliably inform me, that this is a real badge of insanity!

There is a renewed optimism that the Democrats can hold the Senate and retain a slim outside chance, of holding on to the House of Representatives. Political issues are conspiring to diminish expectations of the Grand Old Party and boosting the prospects of the Democrats.

Unsurprisingly Donald Trump figures prominently. The Congressional hearings into the 6th of January storming of the Capitol are slowly shifting the political dial as moderate Republicans and Independent voters recognise the gravity of this Trump supported, and inspired attempt to, “overthrow a democratically elected” Government. The media coverage of Trump’s big “steal” of classified documents to Mar A Lago is impacting voters who are increasingly questioning his “intent”. MAGA candidates, supported and promoted by Trump for the mid-terms, are under more scrutiny and losing traction.

Sarah Palin’s defeat in a special election for Alaska’s only US House seat, to Democrat Mary Peltola, confirms the declining influence of the former President: the first Democratic victory in 50 years.

Trump, remains, however, a formidable figure in US politics, influencing the selection of MAGA candidates, and retaining a cult like grip on millions of republican voters, who remain unmoved by any claims of wrongdoing on Capitol Hill or removing top secret and classified documents.

Biden is also seeing one of the best months of his Presidency. The mood inside the White House and the Democratic Party is more positive, giving fresh hope for the mid-term elections. A blizzard of positive legislation victories has delivered modest gun law reforms along with funding to renew national infrastructure and boost computer chip manufacturing. Congress has agreed far reaching climate legislation and cuts to the costs of prescription drugs, a huge issue in America. Finally, the “Inflation Reduction Act” offers help to reduce inflation, promote clean energy and reduce the budget deficit.

White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain described these measures as “the largest economic recovery plan since Roosevelt, the largest infrastructure plan since Eisenhower, and the largest Climate Change Bill in History.”

Will progressive policies for one America avoid a clash between two Americas dominating the mid- terms? President Biden’s hopes still hang in the balance.