Get ready for 'a very rude awakening': Andy Burnham is about to shake things up – Brian Wilson

Andy Burnham gives a speech in Gravesend in his first official visit as leader of the Labour party (Picture: Dan Kitwood) | Getty Images

July is not a great month for launching great political initiatives or heralding days of hope. Most people’s minds are, very understandably, elsewhere.

There hasn’t been a general election to remind them that a Prime Ministership, and the direction of the country, are at stake. New arrivals in Downing Street no longer even carry novelty value.

As oft-repeated, Andy Burnham will be the seventh Prime Minister in a decade. To be fair, five were Tories. Labour has only had one shot at making a change in mid-term, and this is it. They won’t get another, while retaining credibility, any more than the Tories ended up with.

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The benefits of being an outsider

So though Prime Minister Burnham’s arrival is truly significant, he will have to work doubly hard to establish that impression in the minds of an electorate which is seriously sceptical about the potential of politics to improve their lives.

Against that unpromising background, there are factors going in Burnham’s favour. He has the image of an outsider rather than a member of the political club. In the current age, as Keir Starmer found out to his distinct disadvantage, image and communication take politicians a long way – at least for starters.

Furthermore, Burnham is a genuinely popular figure in those places which know him best. His by-election success in Makerfield where everyone knew they were voting to anoint or prevent a new Prime Minister provided impressive confirmation.

READ MORE: This is Labour's 'last chance', says Andy Burnham in first speech leader

Reform’s stock falling

Another immediate factor in Burnham’s favour is that his arrival coincides with signs that Reform UK’s advance has stalled, with no sight of momentum amidst the ongoing sniff of scandal, not to mention Count Binface.

Reform’s other problem is that they now have a record to be judged against in much of England and Wales, which is scarcely reputation-enhancing. The same goes for the Greens. It is reasonable to expect that a Burnham government will initially nudge the polls a few points in Labour’s direction and clearly back in the game.

The biggest advantage for Burnham as an incoming Prime Minister is that he has a back-story to commend him. The principles he applied as mayor of Greater Manchester will not be entirely transferable to running the country, but there is enough in them to justify a high degree of anticipation.

We can be certain that Burnham will not make the same early mistakes as his predecessor did. When he says that his government will be run on Labour values and priorities, he surely means it. So a few initiatives which appeal directly to that audience are assured.

READ MORE: Why Starmer’s last PMQs showed what a kinder politics can look like, but also its limits

Taking on Sir Humphrey

Success in Manchester was based on pragmatism as much as Labour ideology and this too must be replicated in government. The state should drive priorities like housing and urban regeneration, but consensus and healthy relationships with business are essential to deliver them. That is the kind of stuff Burnham is good at.

Neither should the attractiveness of his unalloyed commitment to distributing the levers of government away from Whitehall be under-estimated. This is something that has been talked about for decades while Whitehall remained resilient in its own defence.

Burnham comes at that question with unique experience for a Prime Minister of knowing what he is up against, having fought Greater Manchester’s corner for the past decade, often in the same corridors of power he now has control over. There are quite a few Sir Humphreys who will be preparing their defences, while Burnham’s team will relish the fight.

There is criticism that Burnham has not put much flesh on the bones of his well-known principles. I actually think this is a strength, since the constraints of a manifesto can act as a barrier to radical thinking. And if the Burnham government is to succeed, it will have to be radical – and not always in directions that will delight and unite his backbenches.

The most obvious example is social security where everyone agrees that more must be done to move people from welfare to work, but the means of achieving this have proved difficult to establish. A Prime Minister speaking the language of the people will have a better chance of making that sound like a promise rather than a threat.

SNP may need to pay heed

If Burnham’s politics, and particularly his commitment to regional devolution, start to work at national level, it will be increasingly difficult for the Scottish government to avoid them. Scottish devolution was never meant to stop at Edinburgh but was always likely to do so in the wrong hands.

It’s worth recalling that John Prescott tried to persuade the English regions that they should have elected assemblies in an effort to create devolved symmetry throughout the UK. After a couple of regional referendums, that was abandoned on grounds of widespread disinterest.

In contrast, the metro mayors concept has been hugely successful and not just in Manchester. It’s a bit of a mystery how the Scottish government has got away for so long without being held to account for the vast disparity which exists between Glasgow and Manchester which, from similar starting points, have had such contrasting economic fates over the past 20 years.

The answer does not lie in powers devolved to Edinburgh but the absence of further devolution to our own cities and regions. On the contrary, Scottish local government has been deprived of funding to maintain basic services, far less act as lead agents of regeneration.

The Starmer government did lots of good things with little credit because it never recovered from early mis-steps. Burnham’s promise of a new approach carries risks but also offers genuine grounds for confidence and hope.

I heard his mate, the Liverpool mayor, Steve Rotherham, say on radio yesterday that anyone who underestimates Burnham’s drive to deliver change is in for “a very rude awakening”. That sounds promising for starters!