Fuel poverty in our islands will never disappear of its own accord - Alistair Carmichael

In the Northern Isles we have a longstanding and well-founded scepticism about forecasts. Sod’s law is the law of the land: winter or spring, summer or autumn – if the weatherman says that the sun will shine then wind and rain will inevitably follow.

One forecast I have learned to pay close attention to, however, is the prediction for the next Ofgem energy price cap. This week’s assessment by Cornwall Insight is that the cap will jump by 9 per cent in October – to over £1700 per year for the average household.

If confirmed, this price hike will be a hard hit for families across the country – and in few places more so than in the Highlands and Islands. Combined with the restrictions on access to the Winter Fuel Payment it represents a serious backward step – and should be a reminder for our governments that fuel poverty in our islands will never disappear of its own accord. We need to see focused, long-term efforts to get help to those in the most urgent need and to improve our housing and insulation. Tackling fuel poverty is essential for struggling families in the here and now – but it is also essential for our country’s climate targets.

It is past a cliché to say that the regulator’s energy price “cap” has become entirely meaningless with the way it yo-yos up and down – and mostly up – with each revision. Even allowing for the drop in prices since 2022, average bills are more than 50 per cent above the pre-pandemic level.

Even then, that price cap average means little in places with far higher energy requirements than the regulator’s “average”, such as the Highlands and Islands. When you have a cold climate and poor housing stock, a cap on unit costs only goes so far. Our communities have led the way in delivering energy for the rest of the country now and into the future – so the price cap feels like cold comfort for us.

Housing quality and insulation is an issue which we are all-too familiar with in the north of Scotland. I cannot count the number of new insulation and upgrade programmes which have been announced over the years. Each one has seen incremental gains but fallen far short of what they have promised – often underspending their budgets by enormous margins because they are too complicated or impractical for most households to access. The low-hanging fruit has long since been picked; it is easy to offer money for improvements but much harder to ensure that communities have the skilled workforce to put those improvements into action. One-size-fits-all – the policy of choice in Holyrood and Whitehall – simply does not fit.

We all know that these problems – whether insulation or fairer tariffs for energy – are difficult to overcome. Taking on difficult problems, however, is what governments are elected to do. Warm words do not heat homes.

Sooner or later – and ideally sooner – ministers are going to have to come up with a long-term plan for fuel poverty that accounts for these challenges – and then deliver on it. Until that happens we are going to continue the same cycle of sticking plasters, half-measures and energy price hikes, year after year.

That is one forecast I can make with confidence.

Alistair Carmichael is the Scottish Liberal Democrat MP for Orkney and Shetland.