The flaw at the heart of Boris Johnson’s Brexit negotiating strategy – leader comment

The hostility shown to the EU contrasts with the fawning attitude towards the US and fails to recognise the disparity in economic power.

Boris Johnson has already adopted what EU negotiator Michel Barnier described as a 'rather combative' approach (Picture: Stefan Rousseau/PA Wire)

There is a flaw at the heart of the new UK’s negotiating strategy with the EU. While not fatal, it is still extremely serious and the UK could end up paying a high price.

It is the idea the UK can essentially force the EU into doing what Boris Johnson and his Brexiteer Cabinet want by threatening to leave without a deal, disrupt the workings of the EU and/or refuse to pay the multi-billion-pound bill required to settle our account.

This aggresssive approach is partly based on the perceived wisdom that ‘in any negotiation, you must be prepared to walk away’ and the fact that the EU also has something to lose in the event of a no-deal.

However, it fails to take into account the disparity in economic power. In 2018, the UK’s GDP was $2.8 trillion, compared to the EU’s $18.7 trillion and the US’s $20.5 trillion. So the UK economy is about 17.6 per cent the size of the EU27’s and 13.6 per cent of America’s.

In contrast to the hostility shown to the EU, the UK Government under Theresa May showed a near-fawning attitude towards the US. Donald Trump repeatedly insulted May while she was in office, even during his two visits to this country, and her rebukes were little more than mild.

This is because the post-Brexit UK desperately needs a trade deal with the US and acting in a friendly way will help achieve that. Johnson’s failure to stick up for UK ambassador Kim Darroch over leaked diplomatic cables criticising Trump – which reportedly prompted Darroch’s resignation – is a sign he will continue the policy of bending over backwards to please the US.

But in Brussels, he seems intent on banging the table until the EU bends over backwards for Britain. The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier yesterday noted Johnson’s already “rather combative” approach.

May tried the line that “no deal is better than a bad deal” but her bluff was called. Johnson sounds like he means it this time, but actually may not.

In advice to his “comrade Boris”, Telegraph journalist Ambrose Evans-Pritchard wrote: “Never, ever try to bluff the EU. Your own bluff will be called with interest. That way lies abject capitulation and the pitiful fate of Syriza in Greece.”

While in the EU, the UK got used to throwing its weight around as one of the biggest member states.

But together the EU27 are stronger and if the UK picks a fight, it will lose. Much better to have made friends, but it may be too late for that now.