Euan McColm: First Minister Humza Yousaf suffers his own 'Annus Horribilis'

With the SNP in turmoil, First Minister needs to convince middle-class voters to back him

It would be entirely understandable if Humza Yousaf was glad to see the back of 2023. After all, apart from winning the contest to succeed Nicola Sturgeon as SNP leader and, therefore, First Minister, it’s been a stinker of a year for him, a real annus horribilis.

Since assuming office in March, Yousaf has suffered a series of blows, both professional and personal, that would have made a decision to pack it all in for a quieter life entirely understandable.

Lowlights of the First Minister’s year include, of course, the arrests of Sturgeon, her husband, the former SNP chief executive Peter Murrell, and ex-party treasurer Colin Beattie MSP amid an ongoing Police Scotland investigation into allegations of fraud. Then there was the humiliating defeat to a resurgent Labour in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election, a result that fed the growing idea that he wasn’t up to the job.

As Yousaf struggled to maintain party discipline, a number of SNP politicians were far from discreet in their criticisms of his positions. Veteran MSP, Fergus Ewing, for example was enthusiastic - to the point of losing the SNP whip - about criticising the agreement that brought the Scottish Greens into government. Kate Forbes, the MSP who came a close second in the SNP leadership election made her views pretty darned clear when she stood at Ewing’s side during the press conference that followed his suspension. And Ash Regan, who came third in the race to succeed Sturgeon, was so unimpressed by Yousaf’s leadership that she quit the SNP and joined Alex Salmond’s Alba Party.

All of this might have been enough to send Yousaf over the edge into a pit of despair but there was more. The collapse of the Deposit Return Scheme, which had been designed and directed by Green minister Lorna Slater, added to the impression of Scottish Government incompetence.

And, more recently, the defeat in the Court of Session of a legal challenge to Scottish Secretary Alister Jack’s decision to block - through the use of a Section 35 order - Holyrood legislation that would have allowed trans people to self-ID has further undermined Yousaf’s authority.

The list of political pressures goes on but, I imagine, the most challenging time of 2023 for Yousaf was the month during which his parents-in-law were trapped in Gaza following the October 7 attack on Israel by Hamas terrorists. The First Minister was clearly, as anyone would have been, stressed by the situation and it was to his great credit that he carried himself with composure and dignity during a truly difficult time.

Yousaf, then, will surely be glad to see the end of the parliamentary session in sight.

But before the First Minister begins his festive break, there are two significant pieces of business to get out of the way.

On Tuesday, finance secretary Shona Robison will deliver the Scottish Government’s latest budget. She’ll do this against a backdrop of warnings about the state of the nation’s finances.

The Fraser of Allander Institute – an independent economic research unit based at Strathclyde University – warns of a £1.5billion black hole in funding next year thanks to increased spending pressures and new government announcements.

Robison is expected to announce a new higher income tax rate of 45 per cent on earnings over £75,000 but such a move would be expected to raise only £60million, necessitating swingeing cuts to services.

The SNP and many of its supporters style themselves as radical or progressive but I would expect the budget to be designed in such a way that small c conservative middle Scotland is as well protected as possible. The SNP didn’t win its first Holyrood election in 2007 by being radical. It won by understanding, just as Tony Blair’s New Labour had a decade earlier, the motivations and aspirations of those most likely to turn out on polling day, the middle class. This may make the self-styled revolutionaries who take to the streets to march for independence wince but it’s true. Progress towards independence is built on caution.

After the budget, the second piece of Scottish Government business to be completed before ministers lock up their offices is the announcement of a decision on whether to appeal the Court of Sessions ruling on the GRA. The deadline for appealing that decision will fall during recess and Yousaf will want to have made his position clear beforehand.

There are those – Green MSP Maggie Chapman and the employees of government-funded campaign groups – who believe it’s essential that such an appeal proceeds. I’d be surprised if it does.

For one thing, Yousaf will have received legal advice that says the chances of such an appeal succeeding are slender. And for another, he will be well aware of polling showing substantially more Scots oppose than support reform of the Gender Recognition Act. At a time when SNP support is starting to slide, it would be positive reckless for Yousaf to walk away from where most voters now stand.

A failed appeal against the court ruling would be both costly and humiliating. Why would Yousaf risk putting himself through that?

The new year will bring more challenges for the First Minister. The police investigation into his party’s finances is likely to come to a head. It is possible that high profile SNP figures will face charges.

Adding to Yousaf’s woes will be the growing expectation that Labour – thanks, in part, to recovering some of the votes it has lost to the SNP over recent years – will win the next general election. Such an outcome would wreck the nationalists’ narrative that only independence can “free” Scotland from Tory rule.

In a time of great turmoil for the SNP, Humza Yousaf needs to dial down the radical rhetoric and convince cautious, middle class voters they can trust him.