Euan McColm: Bickering over SNP independence strategy must be last last thing on Humza Yousaf’s mind

SNP conference debate on referendum plans can be seen as indulgent amid waning party support and horrors in Israel and Gaza

If MP Lisa Cameron’s intention was to damage SNP leader Humza Yousaf, she failed. Had the member for East Kilbride, Strathaven, and Lesmahagow announced last week that she’d defected to resurgent Labour, her former colleagues on the nationalist benches would have winced. Opposition leader Sir Keir Starmer, buoyed by crushing victory over the SNP in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election, could have told a compelling story about Labour’s prospects of further successes to come in Scotland. Cameron would have added to the growing sense that Starmer is Prime Minister-in-waiting.

Cameron’s decision to join the Conservatives, their popularity in Scotland waning fast, does more harm to her own reputation than to the First Minister’s. The SNP leader can afford to roll his eyes at an act that makes his former colleague look out of touch with public opinion.

That’s not to say Yousaf won’t arrive at SNP annual conference in Aberdeen, today, with difficulties to overcome.

That by-election defeat coupled with a drop in popularity for his party puts the First Minister under the sort of pressure no Nat leader has felt for a very long time.

Starmer’s speech at Labour’s conference in Liverpool last week was an impressive attempt to place himself on the side of families feeling the stress of the cost-of-living crisis (a line from the opposition leader about those who had never missed a payment in their lives now walking “a little more slowly past the food bank in their town” captured something of the anxiety people feel). The onus is now on Yousaf to show that he – and his party – understand that pressure and that they have practical ideas about alleviating it.

More chatter about independence won’t cut it. Voters need to hear what Yousaf can do with the powers the Scottish Parliament currently has, not what he might do after a second independence referendum that he has no authority to call, and that the majority of Scots do not want.

Of course, the SNP’s raison d’être is the break-up of the UK but there is a place and time for discussion of this mission. Party conference may be the place but now is most assuredly not the time. The SNP, which overtook Labour to become Scotland’s dominant political force by convincing voters that it had their best interests at heart is in danger of looking out of touch with the electorate.

This perception will be intensified by the first major piece of business to be discussed in Aberdeen. This afternoon’s debate on the implications of the next general election result for independence may be necessary to keep SNP members happy but others may see it as an indulgence.

Former leader Nicola Sturgeon’s plan to treat the next election as a “de facto” referendum has been ditched and replaced with something that looks awfully similar. The current proposal is that, should the SNP win most Scottish seats at the general election, the First Minister would have a mandate to begin talks on “giving democratic effect” to the constitutional desires of SNP voters.

This plan is no less unworkable than Sturgeon’s. Most seats could quite easily be a minority. The party is expected to back an amendment changing “most” to “a majority of”.

But even that won’t change the fact that the Scottish Government has no authority whatsoever to meddle with the constitution of the UK. Should the SNP win the majority of Scotland’s 59 Westminster seats at the next election, Yousaf may claim a mandate for opening negotiations about the break-up the UK, but he won’t have one.

And then there’s that nebulous phrase about giving democratic effect to a pro-independence majority. It is so widely open to interpretation as to be worthless.

Doubtless, many of those nationalists who were happy to be strung along for years by Nicola Sturgeon’s endless promises of a referendum that she couldn’t give them will read this as a promise to begin secession talks. It is nothing of the sort.

It could mean beginning talks about further powers for Holyrood or about how a referendum might be secured in future. Most likely, it will turn out to be neither. The UK Government has no obligation to enter into any kind of discussions with Yousaf on the constitution.

I suspect Yousaf will be glad to get this afternoon’s business out of the way. He knows his priority at this conference is not to enable more navel-gazing among SNP members about the process of getting a second independence referendum up and running. Rather, his focus has to be on reaching out beyond his party’s ranks.

When the SNP won its first Holyrood election in 2007, it did so by persuading many Scots – including a substantial number who did not favour independence – that it could be trusted to deliver stable, competent government. Labour is now making inroads onto the political centre ground in Scotland and the nationalists face a fight to retain their reputation.

It is impossible to ignore that this SNP conference takes place at a difficult time for many Scots, including the First Minister.

Members of our Jewish community grieve for loved ones slaughtered in Israel by Hamas terrorists last Saturday morning. Meanwhile, other Scots – including Yousaf – worry about family members trapped in Gaza as fighting between Israeli forces and Hamas extremists intensifies.

Yousaf, whose parents in law Elizabeth and Maged El-Nakla were visiting relatives when terrorists advanced into Israel, has – even his fiercest political critics concede – handled the responsibilities of leadership with dignity and courage.

His speech at a Synagogue on the southside of Glasgow on Thursday was wise and unifying; his expressions of fear over the plight of his in-laws and others have been distressing to hear.

Humza Yousaf travels to SNP conference at a time when bickering over party strategy must be the last thing on his mind.