Eddie Barnes: Glasgow’s Labour looks tired ahead of council elections

THE new orthodoxy in Scottish politics dictates that, in any forthcoming election campaign, the slickly organised, well-funded SNP will surge effortlessly to beat the faction-ridden, ill-prepared Labour party.

Thus the assumption is that, come May, the rising Nationalist tide will lap up against the previously impregnable walls of Glasgow City Chambers. The political fight in Glasgow is set to take precedence in the council vote this May; in a UK context, it comes second only to Boris v Ken in London. Dubbed (with gallows humour) “Fortress Labour” by some of the party’s battle-weary troops in recent years, ownership of Glasgow means a lot – including the right to be the face of the 2014 Commonwealth Games.

The last few days have not looked auspicious for Labour council leader Gordon Matheson. Six of his councillors – who had been de-selected by the party prior to May’s vote – joined the SNP, Lib Dems and Tories in an effort to torpedo the Labour administration’s budget. Mr Matheson survived, just.

However, taken together with the ignominious exit last year of his predecessor, Steven Purcell, such episodes help to construct the image of a tired party in need of some rest. The SNP need only argue, in time-honoured campaigning fashion, that it is time for a change, and that Labour have had their turn, to get people on doorsteps nodding in agreement.

Not withstanding last week’s chaos, however, Labour figures in Glasgow are optimistic – and their belief is built on firmer ground than that which shifted under the party at Holyrood last year. May’s poll is the first under the new multi-member system when there are no other elections taking place. It means the focus is likely to stick on the local picture, rather than on any national trends that would favour the SNP.

That new system is also likely to help Labour keep its share of the vote up. Then there is the actual political match-up itself. Despite the evidence of last week’s feud, Labour is organised under Mr Matheson, and is preparing to push out a series of eye-catching pledges, including a promise to rebuild every primary school that needs it.

By contrast, the SNP group has – putting it mildly – not yet caught the eye in the way that Alex Salmond did across the country this time last year. A good barometer of the SNP’s own view of its chances will be the amount of time both Mr Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon spend campaigning in the city over the coming months.

The view within Labour circles, and among some in the SNP, is that Mr Matheson should have enough to hang on, although without a majority.

The logic of such a result would see Labour and the Lib Dems doing a deal to run the council together. Not for nothing does Glasgow therefore have national significance. Either the SNP is confirmed as Scotland’s top dog. Or, perhaps, the city plays host to a an old, now-broken, alliance forming once again.