Duncan Hamilton: Why McGuinness might just be good for Ireland

Irish presidents have a long history of being from beyond the Republic

The answer to that lies in the hands of Irish voters. What is already apparent, however, is that the early predictions that McGuinness had no chance have given way to a sense that he just might pull it off. An RTE poll this week had him winning, and his early odds at the bookmakers of 33-1 have been slashed to 3-1, making him second favourite. More than that, his advantages in this campaign are real – he is the only real opposition anti-establishment candidate given that the others have close links to parties which are viewed with contempt by many Irish voters. In the wake of the banking crisis and amidst claims of political corruption, that matters. Interestingly, because Sinn Fein has only 17 TDs (Members of the Dail) and Senators, McGuinness needed the support of three more independent TD’s even to get on to the ballot. Having now reached the threshold of 20 with support from outwith his own party, he can legitimately claim to be a candidate capable of reaching across party boundaries.

But for all that, is the Republic of Ireland really ready for a Sinn Fein President? Can it forgive and forget a past association with the Provisional IRA? Is there a problem with having a ‘northern’ politician as president of the southern Republic?

First, let me declare something of a bias. I have met McGuinness a few times – both in Boston when I was studying and more recently in Belfast as part of a Scottish Government delegation in 2007. I was hugely impressed by him. He is intelligent, engaging, funny, positive and politically astute. So, too, was Ian Paisley. Both men were startlingly different from what I expected. But that’s the point really – you have to allow people to change if political progress is ever to be made.

The truth is that the people of Northern Ireland have accepted McGuinness as their deputy first minister for the last four years and before that as minister for education for the best part of a decade. That doesn’t mean everyone has forgiven and forgotten, but it does mean that he has a legitimacy of a democratic mandate and a track record of exclusively political leadership. He is now described by people like Jackie McDonald, the leader of the UDA, as “a man of peace”.

When even sworn former enemies accept that McGuinness has long since crossed the Rubicon in devoting his life to peaceful politics, isn’t it time that fair-minded people focus more on the remarkable efforts he has made to hard-wire the Republican movement into the peace process? If those directly affected by the Troubles in the north of Ireland can do so, why then is it so difficult for those in the south?

I have had the pleasure of spending a great deal of time in Ireland, having married into a family from Cork. I have always been struck by the alienation between north and south – almost as if the north and its troubles belong to a far distant country. Even so, any sense that this is an inappropriate ‘northern’ candidate doesn’t stand examination.

After all, Irish presidents have a long history of being from beyond the Republic. Erskine Childers didn’t become a naturalised Irish citizen until the age of 33, having been born and raised in London and educated at Cambridge. The towering figure of Eamon de Valera was born in New York. His father was Cuban. Even more pertinently, the outgoing president, Mary McAleese was born and educated in Belfast and practised as a barrister at the Northern Irish Bar. McGuinness has every right and credential to stand.

Critics also claim his election would send out a negative message to the international community. But this is a man praised by President Obama for his “outstanding leadership”. Do you see any other candidates in the race with that endorsement? McGuinness cites the fact that he has been invited to the White House by three US presidents and to South Africa by Nelson Mandela. Does that sound like a man the international community can’t deal with?

Yes, the role of president is largely symbolic and ceremonial. But that is exactly why the election of McGuinness might be a vital next step for Ireland. The Sinn Fein agenda and policy mix has always been viewed with suspicion. Electing McGuinness would be to embrace his positive and vital role in the peace process without adopting the full Sinn Fein agenda.

Ultimately, it may be a step too far for Irish voters. That is a matter rightly and entirely for them. But to the outside world, the feral reaction of some in the Republic to this candidacy serves only to present a country still not at ease with its past. If men like Ian Paisley and Peter Robinson can accept the conversion of McGuinness, maybe it is time that the people in the south did so too.