As Trump tries to blame Jews for his defeat, I'm convinced Harris will win – Henry McLeish

Donald’s Trump’s path to victory in November is narrowing as polling figures consistently reveal his vote has stalled. The respected polling expert Nate Silver – America’s answer to the UK’s John Curtice – has done presidential election modelling showing Kamala Harris has edged ahead in four out of seven key battleground states.

With Harris’s vote share continuing to rise as she targets young voters, women and independents and rebuilds trust with the African American, Asian, Hispanic and LGBTQ communities, a new optimism has gripped the Democratic party.

In electoral terms, the Trump vote has probably peaked and he doesn’t seem to be able to depart from his hate-filled rants in order to reach out to potential supporters, which may eventually be his downfall. Trump continues to double down on messages to his ultra-loyal ‘Maga’ supporters, which consolidates his core vote and provides Trump with all the cult status and “dear leader” adulation he craves.

Democrats on a high

However, in doing so, he is ignoring advice to focus on issues. “Cut the crap, Donald” seems to be the plea from his advisers as defeat looms. Trump’s Narcissism and diminishing mental acuity is distorting his sense of reality, paving the way to his political ruin. At this stage he appears to be listening to no one. 

In contrast, excitement and energy have returned to the Democrats as Harris’s bid to become the next US President gathers pace. I saw this first-hand when I was invited to a fundraising dinner organised by the Arapahoe County Democratic Party in Colorado at the weekend. It was an evening of intense expectation and the determination to defeat Trump and elect the first woman as US President – an aspiration Harris herself rarely mentions – was clear.

There was a real sense of a political party reborn. Speaker after speaker remarked on how the new wave of enthusiasm for Harris had rescued the party from what seemed just a few weeks ago to be a likely defeat. Now, with early voting already underway in a number of states, they are looking forward to a possibly significant victory on November 5.

In a tight race, Vice-President Kamala Harris is on course to beat Donald Trump in the US election (Picture: Chris duMond) | AFP via Getty Images

Trump’s support for self-proclaimed ‘Black Nazi’

Her pick for Vice-President, Tim Waltz, has helped boost the ticket in contrast to Trump’s choice, JD Vance, who is fast becoming a serious embarrassment in his every public utterance – even to Trump, which is saying something! Vance has been relegated to overseeing Trump’s recent claim that Haitian immigrants are eating the pets of the good citizens of the small town of Springfield, Ohio – an old trope designed to stir anti-immigrant sentiment.

But, more worrying for Trump are the recent and spectacular revelations about his personal choice as the Republican candidate for governor of North Carolina, one of the seven swing states that will decide the election and where he currently has a slim lead. This state may now be his nemesis.

The candidate, Mark Robinson, who is an African American, once declared on a pornographic website that he is a “Black Nazi” and expressed support for the return of slavery. Trump has hailed Robinson as “Martin Luther King on steroids”. African Americans are used to being insulted, but this may be a tipping point for those who are undecided. This unwelcome drama may cost Trump victory in North Carolina as this toxic behaviour stirs a sense of injustice, grievance and insult among the substantial Black communities in the southern US states.

Blaming Jewish people for defeat

The growing sense of panic in Trump’s mind is illustrated by two hugely significant attacks on faith and religion in America. Addressing the Israeli-American Council National Summit in Washington, Trump referred to polls showing Harris was ahead among Jewish Americans and said if he didn’t win “the Jewish people would really have a lot to do with that”. An early start to the blame game is a sure sign of a candidate who fears defeat. In another speech, he suggested that Catholics who vote for Harris “should have their heads examined”. Jews, Christians and Muslims have all now figured in Trump’s ill-conceived rants.

Setting aside further insights into Trump world, current polling suggests he is indeed going to lose. Silver is considered one of the leading poll analysts in the US. He founded the ABC news poll, Aggregate, and established the polling organisation, FiveThirtyEight.

Looking at the seven swing states, Silver judges that Harris should probably win Michigan, with 63 per cent of the vote, Pennsylvania 57 per cent, Wisconsin, 56 per cent, and Nevada, 53 per cent. This would be enough to win the Electoral College vote that decides the presidency – a relic of 250-year-old Founding Father thinking – despite its inbuilt Republican bias.

Republican-leaning swing states

In the other three swing states of Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, the Republicans have slim majorities but these are vulnerable to Harris continuing to build her vote while Trump is left defending his loyal voter base. Its numbers are impressive but he is unlikely to add many new supporters. In contrast, Harris is continuing to attract younger people and women incensed by the political assault on the right to an abortion, and seeing the return of many Black, Asian and Latino voters.

Of course, a great deal can happen between now and November 5. This is not a normal election. While much reassurance can be obtained from the consistently accurate Nate Silver to help ease the worries of most of Europe, Trump, a convicted felon with more court cases pending, may yet attract some 80 million votes. That isn’t normal. But then neither is the rise and rise of Kamala Harris.

Henry McLeish is a former First Minister of Scotland