Despite mid-term election disaster, Donald Trump remains a dangerous figure in a volatile and angry America – Henry McLeish

Confronting the trends of public polling and political history, the US midterm elections were a resounding success for the Democratic Party, an unexpected disaster for the Republican Party, aka the Grand Old Party, and a victory for America as it edged back from the brink of becoming a failed democracy.

Donald Trump tosses hats to supporters during a rally in August this year in Waukesha, Wisconsin (Picture: Scott Olson/Getty Images)

The final Senate result, in the key battleground state of Georgia, giving victory to the Democrats in a closely fought run-off election, only added to Republican woes as another Trump-endorsed candidate, Hershel Walker, blundered to defeat. Never lacking in drama or electioneering, America now moves on to the presidential primary calendar where the Democrats will reject Iowa and confirm South Carolina as the first primary state to select their presidential nominee in February 2024, only 14 months away.

Regaining control of the House of Representatives, with a wafer-thin majority, was the only success for the Republicans, where the newly elected Speaker, Kevin McCarthy, will find an influx of Trump Maga maniacs difficult to control. The Republican’s focus on policies such as crime, immigration on the southern border, the cost-of-living crisis, and inflation failed to impress.

Winning a Senate majority was the key aim of the Democrats. After depending on the Vice-President’s casting vote for the past two years, Georgia delivered a 51-49 majority for the Democrats which should ensure confirmation hearings, committee memberships and bringing legislation to the Senate floor will be much easier.

Historically, the President’s party does badly in the midterms, but Joe Biden junked that expectation. Despite low approval ratings, public perceptions of failing health, at times wandering off script and a weak Democratic election platform, Biden managed to attract public support with his focus on the perilous nature of US democracy, outrage over the Supreme Court overturning Roe v Wade, and the behaviour of Donald Trump. Biden’s decency shone through regardless of party performance.

The “Stop the Steal” campaign framed around Trump’s baseless claim that he won the 2020 election was another casualty of the midterms. Understandably the mid-terms took place in the shadow of 2024 and the next presidential election. The influence of Trump and Biden on the outcome was obvious. Biden did well, and Trump did badly.

Biden, who is 80, is in a stronger place after his party’s showing and will consider after Christmas whether to seek a second term. While there are murmurings within his party about whether he should stand, there are doubts about who could replace him. Some argue he has beaten Trump before and could do it again, representing decency against the deranged. But if there was a new Republican candidate, could that make a difference? Much will depend on Biden’s health and advice from his wife and family.

But there is no doubting the strengths he retains in what will again be a campaign based on a plea to Americans about the threat to democracy and a reminder that a Republican President and a compliant GOP conspired to mount a political coup on Capitol Hill on January 6, 2021. Biden may be less steady on his feet and forgetful of the narrative but in a world of racism, authoritarianism, populism and hate politics, he stands out.

The blame game over the poor showing of the Republicans is well underway. According to Blake Hounshell, writing in the New York Times, there is now a battle for control of the party between “party insiders and the grassroots” which focusses on anger and frustration within the GOP over its “underwhelming” performance in November.

In a well-researched article, he wrote: “Bad candidates. Weak fund-raising. The looming presence of Donald Trump. Election denial. The Democrats’ edge in the mechanics of running campaigns. Strategic and tactical errors by Republican leaders. Too much cultural red meat and not enough serious answers to the economic concerns of ordinary Americans." This assessment of the Republicans and their national committee could not have come at a worse time as the party focuses on the presidential election.

Trump, high on narcissism and his own infallibility, has no respect for the party per se and feels no loyalty to any faction except the powerful coalition of special interest groups that propelled him to victory in 2016 and his Maga cult following, who remain a frightening reminder of the empowered anarchy, conspiracy theories, and anti-state, pro-small government sentiment that underlies his support. Trump remains dangerous.

Not content with declaring his candidature for presidency shortly after the midterms, Trump refused to delay his announcement until the Georgia run-off had taken place. First into the race gives Trump a psychological and political advantage but represents an enormous challenge to the Republicans, who are bitterly divided on whether he should be putting his hat into the ring. Talk about another candidate prompted Trump into vicious attack mode and, in characteristic style, he has renamed Ron DeSantis, the Governor of Florida and a potential presidential nominee, as “Ron De Sanctimonious”!

According to the Five Thirty-Eight polling organisation, Trump has been ahead in most surveys. However, recent polls give DeSantis a lead over Trump and Biden. Some pollsters have suggested that Republican voters are looking for “Trumpism without Trump”.

But what the party may fear most is the nightmare of Trump becoming a ‘rogue Republican’. If Trump wins the party’s nomination for the presidency in June 2024, they will most likely lose. If Trump fails to win the nomination, he might stand as an independent or independent Republican, splitting the GOP ticket and handing the presidency on a blue platter to the Democrats. An unchained Trump remains an unfathomable abomination.

American politics may have come back from the brink in the midterms, but it is still a volatile, angry, and politically unstable country, and still on the edge.

Henry McLeish is a former First Minister of Scotland