Dear Humza Yousaf, Scotland's dismal Pisa education ranking was the real 'dark day for devolution' – John McLellan

The SNP has presided over a slump in Scottish education’s standards for years

Project Scotland isn’t a secret political plan being hatched for the forthcoming general election but, according to weekend reports, is the social media nickname for arrangements to find Scottish homes for XL bully dogs. These are the cross-bred American fighting dogs responsible, according to the Bullywatch website, for the deaths of up to 14 people in the UK since 2021, and as of February, it will be a criminal offence to own one in England without an exemption certificate costing £92.40 per hound.

As many owners are, shall we say, not at the top of the socio-economic spectrum, there is a rush to get rid of them, and because the SNP rejected an appeal from the UK Government to apply the ban here, an enterprising Lanarkshire dog home is offering to find them new homes in Scotland.

SNP ministers argue existing Scottish dog control notices are sufficient, but the lack of action looks more like a response to claims the UK Government didn’t tell them the law was about to change. “The UK Government announced the proposal to ban XL bullies without any notice to the Scottish Government,” said a Scottish Government spokesperson, “and we expect the UK Government to act responsibly and ensure there is no impact on Scotland.” Presumably, it will be Westminster’s fault if one of these rehomed, heavy-jowled mutts mauls a toddler, as happened in London two months ago.

Divergence is arguably the essence of devolution – there wouldn’t be much point otherwise – but difference for the sake of it is equally pointless for everyone except those who believe that’s what matters, even if it makes things worse. There are plenty of examples where the Scottish Parliament has set examples for the UK to follow, and although they had their opponents, there aren’t many who would argue the smoking ban or the lower drink-driving limit should be overturned.

Similarly, the pavement parking ban, which became law yesterday and will be enforced in Edinburgh next month, is a case where public opinion – 68 per cent are supportive, according to Edinburgh Council – is aligned with the new rules. The same might be said of the tourist tax, bitterly opposed by the hospitality industry, but with 85 per cent support in a 2018 Edinburgh Council survey. And just because they don’t make a direct link between high income tax and collapsing services, people like “free” prescriptions and university tuition.

The common thread is a majority see the benefits but the mistake the SNP and Greens seem incapable of avoiding is to believe that even if the public isn’t fully behind everything they do, they will share their outrage at any UK Government interference. It produces reactions like Humza Yousaf’s claim that the UK Government’s blocking of the Gender Recognition Reform Bill was a “dark day for devolution”, when two-thirds of people oppose the legislation and, according to an Ipsos poll, only a third of voters opposed Scotland Secretary Alister Jack’s intervention.

Despite a barrage of publicity, public support for the now-abandoned deposit return scheme never rose about 50 per cent and, as its operators said it would still work after the UK Government intervened to exclude glass because of the impact on UK market, how many would have swallowed Greens minister Lorna Slater’s claim it had been sabotaged?

If there was a dark day for devolution it was not Friday at the Court of Session, but Tuesday at Holyrood and the publication of the latest Programme for International Student Assessment (Pisa) outcomes, showing standards in mathematics and science in Scottish schools continue to tumble and Scottish pupils’ attainment levels significantly lag their English counterparts.

Scotsman readers need no reminding Scotland’s different education system long pre-dates devolution, but as Pisa surveys go back 20 years they are a good measure, indeed the only one, of devolution’s effect. Education expert Professor Lindsay Paterson pointed out the results show the decline between 2012 and 2022 is the equivalent of losing 16 months of maths teaching and eight months in reading.

The loss of 18 months in science schooling, vital for competitiveness in the digital age, is truly shocking, especially when Nuffield Foundation research in 2021 showed annual spending per pupil in Scotland was £1,200 higher than in England and Wales, mostly absorbed by more generous pay settlements for teachers. It also found Scottish primaries had only 16 pupils per teacher, compared to 21 or over in England. Prof Paterson also pointed out that since the 2010 introduction of Curriculum for Excellence, the attainment gap between the poorest and wealthiest backgrounds has widened, the closure of which former First Minister Nicola Sturgeon once claimed was her priority.

A desperate SNP response was inevitable, but the Scottish Government spinners’ headline “Scottish education maintains international standing” on the official release, because all countries had experienced negative Covid impacts, was particularly risible. It ignored the fact that schools in Scotland were kept under Covid restrictions longer than in England for no other apparent reason than to do things differently.

If anyone thinks the latest Pisa results will be a wake-up call for Scottish education, they might be disappointed. Stirling University sociologists Marina Shapira and Mark Priestley, the latter a member of the Curriculum and Assessment Board which advises Scottish minsters, blamed a “neoliberal tendency” for focussing on curriculum standards, over-emphasis on qualifications and, despite higher spending, poor resources, but without a hint of irony wrote “what we are seeing is the usual politicised point-scoring”. Their view that “using attainment as the primary measure of curriculum success is unhealthy” and “counter-educational” suggested the best way to deal with the attainment gap is not to measure it at all.

But as long as the attainment gap is between what the Scottish Government claims to achieve and reality, devolution’s days will remain dark. And what’s needed is a realistic Project Scotland to address Scotland’s education slump over which the SNP has presided for 16 years.