David Maddox: An in-out referendum on Europe is more likely

IN the dark days for the SNP, before the party found its collective purpose with Alex Salmond’s second coming as leader, it was famously split between gradualists and fundamentalists who took very different views on the path to independence.

The same can now almost be said about the Conservative Party in terms of the European Union question, but while Mr Salmond persuaded his party to embrace the softly, softly gradualist approach, David Cameron now appears to be a prisoner of the Eurosceptic fundamentalists in his party.

The similarity with the SNP and the Tory Eurosceptics is that the latter is a UK nationalist desire to be free from the centralising powers of the EU and the speed and extent that should happen.

The Tory Eurosceptic fundamentalists want out. They want an in-out referendum similar to the one agreed for Scotland, which they believe will be backed by the British electorate leading to an exit from the EU. Tory gradualists, including the Prime Minister, want to stay within the EU but withdraw from certain aspects of it.

Last week’s humiliating defeat on the the EU budget on Halloween, by an appropriately unlucky 13 votes, has scared Downing Street. This is why Mr Cameron has let it be known that he intends to give a major speech on the European question in the next few weeksk, undoubtedly in the hope this will finally put a stake through the heart of the eurosceptic vampires sucking the life out of his government.

The trouble is that most observers can accurately predict what will be in the speech. He will say that certain powers need to be handed back – a kind of EU devolution to the UK – and will promise there will be a pledge to hold a referendum on this should the Tories win the next election, not an entirely likely prospect based on the current opinion polls.

Similar promises before have failed to please the fundamentalists, who essentially, are in the majority on the Tory backbenches and wider party membership and are unlikely to do so again. Nothing but in-out will be good enough for them.

Mr Cameron now faces a threat from heavyweights in his cabinet. Recently, education secretary Michael Gove, a favourite to suceed Mr Cameron as leader, said he’d vote to leave the EU.

Then, over the weekend, Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith, who was one of the Maastricht rebels against John Major, strongly hinted on the Andrew Marr show that he would be happy for the UK to again become an entity outside Europe.

“I’m an optimist about the UK. I’ve always been involved with our trade with our European partners which we will always be doing whatever this relationship is,” he said.

With Labour voting alongside the Tory rebels last week, the landscape in Westminster politics is distinctly Eurosceptic. An in-out referendum after the next election is still not inevitable but it is now looking increasingly likely.