Dani Garavelli: BoJo gets his mojo working, but Nats can’t depend on it

Just in case anyone should accuse Boris Johnson of not doing enough to further the cause of Scottish independence, he decided to venture north last week. With the latest poll showing support for Yes at 54 per cent – a record high – he set himself a challenge: could he bump it up to 55 per cent? It’s too early to tell how successful he was. But you have to hand it to him: he gave it his best shot. A speech about the “mighty Union”, references to the munificence of the Treasury, a photograph with some crabs – all while another 50+ Covid deaths were being announced in England. That ought to have done the trick.

Demonstrators gather to greet Boris Johnson as he visits Stromness, in a week that marked his first year as Prime Minister. Picture: Robert Perry/Getty

Johnson’s trip was organised in a panic after the same poll’s prediction of an SNP landslide at next year’s Holyrood elections set off a once-in-five-years klaxon for Tory ministers. “The Union is in peril,” it blared. “Activate Operation ‘Save the Union’.”

The last time this happened was the week before the independence referendum after a YouGov poll showed Yes leading by two points. A cohort of 60 unionist MPs, councillors and activists went to pro-Indy hotspot Glasgow. They were met by saltire-waving protesters and a man in a rickshaw shouting: “Bow down to your imperial masters.” This time round it was just Johnson, and he chose to go to unionist heartland Orkney, followed by an RAF base. How brave. But a group of protesters still turned out. They carried banners with the word “Twatt” which was, by happy chance, the name of a nearby village.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon knew how Johnson’s visit would play in Scotland; she tweeted it was a belated 50th birthday present. Times cartoonist Peter Schrank knew how Johnson’s visit would play in Scotland. He drew him running towards Sturgeon across a crumbling “UNION” shouting “I’m here to help” as Sturgeon shouted back “You are helping.” The fact Johnson didn’t know how his visit would play is evidence of his inability to get any handle on Scotland.

He is – as journalist Ian Dunt put it – “a caricature of English indifference towards Scotland”, loathed long before he became Prime Minister. His refusal to countenance a softer Brexit deal that might have appeased Remainers deepened that loathing, along with his handling of the pandemic. Where Sturgeon has been cautious, he has been cavalier; where she appears to take every death personally, he seems more concerned with the bottom line. All of which explains why Sturgeon’s approval rating keeps rising and his keeps falling.

Johnson appeared to be under the impression the country’s faltering love for the Union would be rekindled if only he pointed out how much Treasury money had been invested in tackling the coronavirus. Throw in a £50m cash injection for Orkney and we’d be eating out of his hands. But, for many Scots, his mere presence is a reminder of a democratic deficit. When the Prime Minister talks about financial support from the Chancellor, what many Scots think is “That’s our money, anyway,” and “Wouldn’t it better if we had our own borrowing powers?” Furthermore, any financial package for Orkney has to be set against 10 years of austerity and the economic damage Brexit will wreak on the economy.

But 2020 is a topsy-turvy time, and it’s not all good news for the First Minister. Even as the man who should be her greatest foe set about consolidating her popularity, some of those in the wider Yes movement were undermining it.

That’s how it is these days: ultra-unionists are being outdone in their vitriol towards Sturgeon by those on the same side, some of whom call her a traitor. Veteran campaigner Robin McAlpine has criticised her “centralised, right-of-centre” administration. “For three years, the First Minister hid behind her self-image (don’t talk about independence, just trust me),” he wrote. “For the next three years, she hid behind Brexit (don’t talk about independence, Brexit first). For the next five, it appears she plans to hide behind Covid (don’t talk about independence at all).”

For some time, those frustrated by Sturgeon’s cautious approach have mooted the creation of alternative pro-Indy parties to compete for the list votes at next year’s election. That became a reality when former MSP Dave Thompson quit the SNP to launch the Alliance for Independence. Thompson says AfI could win 24 seats.

A super-majority would create a super-mandate. Should 75 per cent of MSPs be pro-Indy, it would be difficult (though not impossible) for Johnson to continue to resist demands for a Section 30 order.

But the situation is not all it seems. Those hardliners who have been undermining Sturgeon for years – and who are likely to form the core of AfI – will continue to undermine her once they gain a foothold in the Scottish Parliament. In other words, they plan to surf into Holyrood on her tide, then attempt to drag her under.

There is also the Russia Report which drew fresh attention to the links 
between Alex Salmond and Kremlin-funded Russia Today. Salmond is no longer a member of the SNP, but many of his followers are. So too are others involved in his chat show. This is a source of embarrassment for Sturgeon who is keen to distance herself from the regime.

Some observers say none of this is important. They insist the divisions within the SNP are superficial; that the toxic rhetoric is confined to a small group of people who inhabit a small corner of the internet. Former SNP head of communications Fergus Mutch said as much during a political “Think-In” for “slow news” media platform Tortoise on Friday. It is an odd contention given the bad blood between Salmond and Sturgeon is about to be played out in a parliamentary inquiry which has the potential to claim some significant scalps.

Were a second referendum to be imminent, perhaps Mutch would be right: the squabbling would stop and everyone would rally behind a common goal.

But right now there is no consensus that a second referendum – secured by means of a Section 30 order – is the way to go. Some hardliners want the SNP to present a majority at next year’s election as a mandate to begin negotiations without a referendum. Or for the Scottish Government to take legal action to establish the Scottish Parliament’s right to legislate for a referendum on independence without a Section 30 order. Already, it appears some of those within the AfI may oppose Sturgeon on a second referendum and back one of the “Plan Bs”. This despite the fact Catalonia bears witness to what can happen if independence is attempted by means perceived as illegitimate.

Up to a point, disagreement within movements is healthy. But Sturgeon has worked hard to earn the trust and goodwill of other EU countries, and the progress she has made should not be squandered.

Nor should those who want independence rely on Johnson’s knack for alienating Scottish voters, while they engage in internecine fighting. His tenure will not last forever. And a Labour government led by Keir Starmer might not be such a great recruiting sergeant for the cause.