Covid: Nicola Sturgeon must publish Scotland's second wave forecasts – Scotsman comment

Nicola Sturgeon has added to her already considerable reputation as a capable politician during the Covid pandemic by being generally honest about the situation we’re in, straight with the public about what this means, and treating Scotland’s citizens like adults.

Nicola Sturgeon should make the Scottish government's forecasts about a Covid second wave known to the public

So the decision not to make public the Scottish government’s forecasts about the likely numbers of cases and deaths that could result from a second Covid wave – following a Freedom of Information request – seems to be at odds with the First Minister’s approach and also the public’s own views, judging by her popularity ratings.

Some civil servants may take the regrettable attitude that the public does not need to know, but all elected politicians should realise the importance of placing a degree of faith in their own people in a democracy.

So if this is a decision taken by officials, ministers or MSPs should intervene and get this important information for us because we do need to know.

However worrying or distressing it might be, the national interest is best served by making these forecasts known to the public for a very simple reason.

As Liberal Democrat health spokesperson Alex Cole-Hamilton said, “if ministers want the public to obey fresh restrictions, they need to treat them like adults. That means providing them with the information about why certain decisions are being taken and what the consequences will be if restrictions are not obeyed. That is the swiftest and surest route out of this crisis."

The electorate is not stupid, they will know that these forecasts are not bound to come true, but are instead a range of possible outcomes from the best to the worst. Some might feel daunted and focus on the worst, but this effect would be overshadowed by what is likely to be a greater determination to stick to the rules, when some are clearly flagging.

Regardless of the situation, democratic governments should always be as open and transparent as they possibly can.

In the information age, paternalistic tendencies towards secrecy are anachronistic.

So the Scottish Government should change its mind, give it to us straight and let us know the extent of the dangers we could soon be facing. No one will blame them, if the worst does not happen.

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