COP26: US intelligence services warn of 'growing risk of conflict over water and migration' as climate change gets worse – Scotsman comment

Six days to COP26: While many world leaders, scientists and others maintain there is still hope that dangerous climate change can be avoided, the US intelligence services are expecting and preparing for the worst.

A recent report by the US National Intelligence Council says “given current government policies and trends in technology development, we judge that collectively countries are unlikely to meet the Paris goals...”, adding that, based on the current trajectory, the world will hit 1.5C of warming by 2030 and 2C by mid-century.

But their expertise is not related to climate, rather in assessing what effect will be on international relations.

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“Geopolitical tensions are likely to grow as countries increasingly argue about how to accelerate the reductions in net greenhouse gas emissions that will be needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals,” the report says, adding that countries will compete to “compete to control resources and dominate new technologies needed for the clean energy transition”.

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Furthermore, as global warming intensifies, this is “likely to exacerbate cross-border geopolitical flashpoints as states take steps to secure their interests”. It predicts competition over the Arctic's natural resources, and warns of a “growing risk of conflict over water and migration, particularly after 2030” and of disputes if countries “unilaterally test and deploy large-scale solar geoengineering” to cool the planet down.

It also notes that developing countries will be hit hardest by climate change, increasing “the potential for instability and possibly internal conflict”.

So preventing global warming from breaching the 1.5C and 2C targets set by the Paris Agreement is about more than just the weather.

The Chibayesh marshland in Iraq's southern Ahwar area bakes in the summer heat (Picture: Asaad Niazi/AFP via Getty Images)The Chibayesh marshland in Iraq's southern Ahwar area bakes in the summer heat (Picture: Asaad Niazi/AFP via Getty Images)
The Chibayesh marshland in Iraq's southern Ahwar area bakes in the summer heat (Picture: Asaad Niazi/AFP via Getty Images)

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