Brexit: Why Remain would win second referendum – Kenny MacAskill

Theresa May’s unpopularity and the difference between the emerging reality of Brexit and the Leave campaign’s rhetoric would help Remain triumph in a second vote, writes Kenny MacAskill.

Brexit can be stopped if only MPs have the courage to allow a second referendum

Theresa May continues to play with fire, running the clock down trying to deliver her Brexit deal. Meanwhile Jeremy Corbyn still vacillates but at least has been progressed to supporting a second referendum. Whether it’ll come about still isn’t clear but it’ll only happen if MPs hold their nerve and exert their authority.

But, another vote is looking like the only way out of the morass and, what’s more, Remain will win. It’s not just that leading pollsters have been saying that Remain has had a narrow lead in the polls for a while now but, more importantly, the wider circumstances in which it would be held.

As the old adage goes “there’s nothing certain in life but death and taxes”, but it’s there to be won. It’s hard to imagine that the campaign could be as useless as it was last time. Then Cameron was wooden, May lacklustre and Corbyn literally posted missing. To be fair, those running it were caught flat-footed by the extent and shamelessness of the lies and duplicity of the Leave side, never mind law-breaking and interference from foreign bodies or states. Supervising authorities and even courts would be more aware and Leave would be constrained from the outset to reduce the chances of a repeat of past behaviour.

Those running the Remain campaign would surely up their game and certainly be more prepared. A bit of humility would be necessary and an understanding that many are voting not for what the EU is but what it can be. Others are voting for what it is but with little warmth for a distant and frankly tarnished organisation.

It’s still better though than being out and that can be spelt out, though much less needs said as some jobs have already gone and inward investment has dried up. I’m surprised that many major employers didn’t spell out what a Leave vote would mean last time. Maybe they thought it wasn’t needed or that Cameron and Osborne’s project fear would suffice? I doubt some would stay silent this time, pay-packets would carry notes explaining that a Leave vote would see a P45 following.

The abject failure of Brexiteers to conjure up any significant trade deals – other than the possibility of the USA imposing chlorinated chicken and the privatisation of the NHS – has exposed the harsh world that exists outside. The rhetoric hasn’t matched the reality for those who championed the idea of the big wide world waiting with open arms for the Empire’s glorious return. Dealing with the vacuous nonsense that was spouted whether by Boris Johnson, David Davis or any other of the other charlatans would be far easier. They’ve been shown up as the men of straw that they always were.

But, in any election or referendum, it’s motivation that matters and that’s where Remain has the edge, which it didn’t last time. Some, especially those who rarely vote and turned out for Leave last time, are unlikely to do so again. This time they won’t be voting on the false pretence that it’s to end immigration as that’s been blown apart. Likewise, whatever May parrots Leave doesn’t mean Leave. The likelihood is that at best you’ll be voting for some semi-detached option where rights remain with the EU and it most certainly isn’t taking back control. They’ll be angry but stay at home.

So, not only will the question on the ballot paper be slightly different but this time there’ll be a far clearer understanding of just what the vote’s about and what the outcomes of each option mean. Knowledge and information help not just in turnout but in ensuring informed choice. Remain can only benefit from that, as the facts, not the fiction, become clearer.

Finally, there’s the cardinal rule that unpopular Governments don’t win ballots. Last time Cameron was hardly an encouragement to turn out for Remain voters, more like a reason to let him swing for his foolishness. This time, given Theresa May’s position, it’s unlikely to be perceived as a vote for the Government. Indeed, voting Remain could be construed as a clear vote against Britain’s most useless Premier, if it’s run against her Withdrawal Agreement.

So, it’s there to be won if it’s held. But that’s a vote for Parliament, not the people, and have they got the courage of our convictions is the question.