Brexit: UK brinkmanship in EU talks risks a deal that's almost as bad as no-deal – Scotsman comment

For all the bluster and macho posturing by Boris Johnson and his ministers – such as the recent melodramatic declaration that the talks with the EU were “over” – it seems likely that London and Brussels will agree a trade deal before the Brexit transition period runs out.

Boris Johnson must make compromises to secure a good trade deal for Britain with the EU (Picture: Stefan Rousseau/PA Wire)

It may be a literally last-minute deal, but both sides clearly do want to reach one. The consequences of failing to do so would be bad for both sides although, as should be obvious to everyone, much worse for the UK.

According to the UK’s fiscal watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility, a no-deal Brexit would be at least as damaging to the economy as the long-term effects of the Covid-19 outbreak. And, by a curious and grim coincidence, its worst effects would be on those businesses that have not suffered as much as other sectors because of the pandemic, such as manufacturers, the financial services and agriculture. OBR member Charlie Bean told MPs that “Brexit shock” would result in a “pretty much unavoidable” rise in unemployment.

The OBR’s warning was echoed by the international Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which said a no-deal Brexit would “entail serious additional economic disturbances in the short term and have a strongly negative effect on trade, productivity and jobs in the longer term”.

While Johnson does appear to be listening to such wise counsel, with less than a month to agree a deal, time is running out. Such brinkmanship always carries the risk of a disaster, despite sensible intentions on both sides, and no-deal remains a threat. Such an outcome would be an act of utter folly even in the best of times; amid the Covid crisis, it would be a shocking dereliction of the government’s duty to act in the best interests of its people.

However, a more likely scenario is of a rushed, ill-considered deal that is little better than none at all and simply designed to save face – and there is very real danger that is exactly what will happen.

With unemployment at 1.6 million and forecast to hit 2.6 million, the UK economy is suffering. We desperately need a trade deal with the EU that minimises the damage of Brexit and the British government must make compromises to secure it.

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