Are the Tories facing the equivalent of the old Liberal party’s 1922 election disaster - Christine Jardine

The current crisis in the polls comes at the end of a parliament which they began with an 80-seat majority

They are the oldest continuous political party in the world, but suddenly the future looks a little uncertain for the Tories.

According to opinion polls the once irresistible political force now looks almost impotent against a Labour Party which itself has failed to capture that feeling of anticipation and excitement about change which characterised 1997.

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On everything from the ill-thought through threat to impose VAT on private schools, to their lack of clarity on taxation, Keir Starmer’s party are missing the point for too many people. The zeitgeist has eluded them this time around.

On doorsteps here there is the feeling that they may only have recaptured Scottish hearts in those areas where they can depose the SNP but have made a start towards retaining their former strength.

Amidst all this the question I cannot put out of my mind is whether this could be the Conservatives’ equivalent of the old Liberal party’s 1922 election.

Whether the same sort of internal divisions which cast the party of Gladstone and Lloyd George into the political wilderness and led to 90 years out of government for their political successors could be about to tear the Conservatives apart?

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Astonishingly the current crisis in the polls comes at the end of a parliament which they began with an 80-seat majority and projecting a sense of electoral invincibility.

Looking back to that December morning in 2019 I don't think any of us could have imagined that it would come to this.

That picture of Boris Johnson, arms aloft celebrating victory, was a painful one for those of us on the opposition benches.

Five years later his ejection from the scene has not saved the party whose reputation he did so much to damage, and the divisions he encouraged threaten to engulf them.

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For me as a Liberal Democrat the chaos which has followed the Conservatives from Government to the campaign trail is not something from which I take immense joy.

Yes, I want the opportunity to work again for my community and to see policies which will save the NHS and social care for all of us. To create 8,000 more GP positions, improve conditions for care workers and make sure everyone gets a fair deal.

But I also want to ensure that we maintain the variety of voices that is vital to democracy.

The Conservative party is currently struggling to silence voices from within and elsewhere which are overwhelming those who their supporters long regarded as the voice of one nationism.

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To the onlooker that battle appears to have become as all-consuming and challenging as that with Labour party. Victory in both looks increasingly difficult.

If that is the case and the opinion polls prove to be correct, then three weeks from now we may be looking not just at a vanquished Conservative Party but at a much-changed political landscape. A full-scale political realignment.

My own party, the Scottish Liberal Democrats may again be part of a strong presence at Westminster able to influence both Government and Opposition.

The SNP’s gas may be on something of a peep.

Or will the Conservatives, those longest surviving chameleons of British politics, manage to defy predictions and save themselves with yet another reinvention for a new era.

July 5th we will have the answer.

Christine Jardine is Liberal Democrat Candidate for Edinburgh West

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