Analysis: Tunisia’s democratic renaissance hangs on secularist victory in drafting constitution

“I like the programme of Ennahda … It will be good for us in the future,” says Marwen Fazoua, a 20-year-old multi-media student in Tunis.

Many Tunisians seem to agree, making the “moderate” Islamic party favourite to win. Its leader, Rachid Ghannouchi, this week claimed that Ennadha would attract more than 40 per cent of the votes.

In Marwen Fazoua’s home town of Avicenne City almost everyone will vote Ennadha, he claims. With his cropped hair and fashionable clothing, Marwen is hardly a hardline Islamicist. He even goes to the pub, he says, and is not a practising Muslim.

Under the regime of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, sent into exile after 23 years of dictatorship in January, many practising Muslims were imprisoned and tortured and many argue that much of the old regime is still in place.

Some secularists worry Ennadha will impose a strict form of Islam and the line between state and religion will be blurred. Their political opponents point to their cadre’s role in attacks on tourist resorts in 1991. Thousands protested last weekend to uphold the right to free expression after a local TV station broadcast the film Persepolis – which includes a scene showing an image of Allah. Ennadha officials sought to distance themselves from the hardliners who protested against the film and condemned the ensuing violence.

Ennadha has been telling journalists that, while it looks to Islam for guidance, it does not intend to impose a Salafist or jihadi regime.

A well-organised outfit, Ennadha (it means Renaissance in Arabic) has its roots in the Muslim Brotherhood, though its leaders often say it is modelled upon the Turkish Justice and Development Party (AKP). Since the Jasmine Revolution in January, it has opened 200 offices and deployed thousands of volunteers to great effect.

But even if Ennadha wins a large share of the vote, a complex system of proportional representation should ensure no single party can dominate the process of writing a new constitution.

Its electoral programme calls for citizens’ rights, a separation of religious and secular power and protection of women’s rights. Western diplomats say Ennadha has a broad spectrum of views both in its leadership and among its support base. They also say that they are not worried about an Ennahda victory, “as long as they abide by democratic rules”, as one put it.

Most observers hope that this, the first election of the Arab spring, will deliver just such a pluralist result. However, as winter approaches, long shadows are being cast over the region’s new democracies.

Foremost in many minds in Tunis is a knee-jerk reaction by the Tunisian elite. Marwen Fazoua says: “It’s possible.” It was secular forces that urged the military intervention in Algeria in 1991.

“Better they [Ennadha] keep it [Tunisia] secular. Should there be a military coup, then we will launch another revolution,” says Marwen. “Everyone [all the parties] will be back on the streets,” he adds.