Analysis: Opposition parties in fight to bring Senegal’s democracy back to life

The future of one of Africa’s oldest democracies is at stake in Senegal’s presidential election next weekend. The incumbent, Abdoulaye Wade, formerly a leading advocate for democracy, has, at almost 90 years old, become its gravedigger.

He has been tinkering with Senegal’s constitution in dangerous ways ever since he was inaugurated in 2000. Of the 15 changes Wade made to the constitution, ten weakened democracy; the others were erratic, if not bizarre. For example, Wade at one point abolished Senegal’s senate, only to reinstate it after realising it could be put to use as a place to reward political allies.

In February 2007, he was re-elected as president, amid opposition charges the election had not been free and fair. As a result, the opposition boycotted that year’s parliamentary elections. The boycott gave Wade absolute control over the legislature, as well as the ability to appoint Constitutional Court judges unimpeded.

Last June, Wade attempted what would have amounted to a constitutional coup. The most recent credible opinion poll in Senegal, conducted the previous year, had indicated he would receive only 27 per cent of the vote in the next presidential election. Given the existing constitution’s provision for a mandatory run-off if no candidate wins 50 per cent, Wade would almost certainly lose if the opposition parties united behind a single candidate.

Wade, recognising this, tried to have the National Assembly amend the constitution in his favour once again. Any candidate who won a plurality and at least 25 per cent of the popular vote in the first round would win the presidency. No run-off would be necessary.

Thanks to massive demonstrations, in which many popular artists played a role, Wade backed off. It is now impossible for him to abolish a presidential run-off. But Wade is trying other tricks. His followers have circulated fake polls suggesting he would win in the first round with 53 per cent – clear evidence his clan does not seriously envisage any scenario other than a first-round victory.

In late January, Wade’s stacked Constitutional Court ruled he could run for a third term, even though the constitution allows only two. The ruling also excluded the world-famous singer and composer Youssou N’Dour from running against him. As predicted, widespread protests erupted, and five people were killed in clashes with the police. During the following week, the opposition considered mass protests to prevent the election. That, however, would have resulted in further violence, and democracy might have broken down entirely.

But Senegalese democracy can still be saved. If the opposition parties keep their promise to unite behind whichever opposition candidate receives the most votes in the first round, Wade will most probably lose in the run-off.

Moreover, the opposition’s chances of benefiting from a free and fair election will be enhanced, owing to greater external scrutiny of the election than there was in 2007.

• Alfred Stepan is professor of political science at Columbia University in New York.