Analysis: Nato has a mountain to climb in a potentially high-profile summit

THIS month, Nato will hold its next summit in Chicago. Unlike European Union summits, which take place almost monthly, Nato’s are infrequent.

The meeting was initially billed as an “implementation summit,” at which Nato’s political leaders would focus on assessing the progress of the ambitious agreements reached in Lisbon. But four political developments that have modified the international security agenda are likely to transform Chicago into a high-profile summit in its own right.

First, the revolutions in the Arab world and Nato’s military intervention in Libya. Second, the international financial crisis will have an immense impact on Nato members’ defence budgets. Third, in a speech last June, outgoing US secretary of defence Robert Gates revived the debate on transatlantic burden-sharing and solidarity within the alliance.

Finally, the first Nato summit to be held in the United States in 13 years is taking place not only in an election year, but also in president Barack Obama’s hometown. The Obama administration is therefore particularly interested in outcomes that can be announced as major successes

The foremost item on the agenda for Chicago will certainly be Afghanistan, from which Nato has decided to withdraw its combat forces by 2014.

Next will be the traditionally tense Nato-Russia relationship and the showcase project of the Nato-Russian relationship – a common missile-defence system.

A related topic also has its roots in the Lisbon summit: the alliance’s attempt to find a new consensus on the role of nuclear weapons.

Having addressed the thorny issues raised in Lisbon, the first new topic on the summit agenda will be what Nato secretary-general Anders Fogh Rasmussen calls “smart defence”. Given that there is little hope of increasing defence expenditures, existing budgets, according to Rasmussen, must be spent in smarter way.

Amid these challenges for Nato, the one bright spot on the Chicago agenda might be the ongoing developments in the Arab world. Although it is not yet possible to predict the outcome of the Arab Spring, the alliance proved its ability to act wisely in Libya, thereby improving its image in North Africa. In Chicago, Nato will agree on a major political declaration offering further support for the region, on the condition that the region’s countries request it.

• Karl-Heinz Kamp is research director of the Nato Defense College in Rome. The views expressed here are his own.