Analysis: Nationalists’ early start aims to make the most of their war chest

THERE is to be no respite. As soon as May’s local elections and the consultation on the independence referendum are concluded, the campaign to secure a Yes vote for independence will begin.

You might think it curious that Mr Salmond already knows he will be campaigning for a Yes rather than a No vote. Might that not depend on the question that appears on the ballot paper? Is not its wording one of the subjects of his consultation and has he not promised to subject his proposal to testing by the Electoral Commission? In truth, on this he has probably made a safe bet. In all other recent Electoral Commission approved referendums in the UK, including last year’s ballot on the alternative vote, the Yes side has been the one that wants change – and there is no doubt it is the Nationalists who are proposing change.

But might this not present Mr Salmond with a tactical advantage? Might not voters be more inclined to say Yes to the Union than No to independence? In practice this seems unlikely. No is, after all, what voters said both to the alternative vote and to devolution for north-east England. Meanwhile, one survey of referendums across the world during the 20th century found that in the home of referendums, Switzerland, the No side won exactly half the time, while elsewhere more than one in three ballots resulted in rejection.

Rather, it is Mr Salmond who must have one serious worry at the back of his mind. There is a tendency for voters to swing against change as polling day approaches. This happened, for example, in both the 1975 European referendum and last year’s AV ballot.

So with independence clearly behind in the polls at present, Mr Salmond needs to turn opinion around well before the official campaign starts. Moreover, at this stage he can spend as much money as he wants – the spending limits (£750,000 for each side) will kick in 16 weeks before polling day – and he is known to have at least £2 million in his war chest.

Of course there is nothing to stop the unionists starting their campaign in May too; after all, they say the referendum should be held “sooner rather than later”. But first they have to agree on who will lead the campaign and what its key messages should be. And one message from the weekend’s Labour and Liberal Democrat conferences is that such agreement still looks a long way off.

• John Curtice is professor of politics at Strathclyde University.