Analysis: John Curtice on the latest ICM poll

SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE: Unless our latest ICM poll proves wholly inaccurate, either Yes or No activists will be bitterly disappointed on Friday – and asking what they might have done to have avoided losing so narrowly. Here are a few suggestions.
Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon meets with campaigners at Renfrew Town hall. Picture: GettyDeputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon meets with campaigners at Renfrew Town hall. Picture: Getty
Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon meets with campaigners at Renfrew Town hall. Picture: Getty

Should it lose, the Yes campaign will be asking what more it might have done to persuade Scots on the central issue – if independence would be good or bad for Scotland’s economy. Slightly fewer have been convinced that it would be good (38 per cent) than bad (45 per cent), an imbalance that has changed little.

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The Yes campaign will also wonder what it could have done to reduce the perception that it was too much of a risk. Voters are still twice as likely (49 per cent) to regard independence as a risk than staying in the Union (25 per cent). The proportion who regard voting No as a risk is only four points higher than in July.

Perhaps the biggest barrier to Yes success will have been the reluctance of older voters to back independence. Just 30 per cent of those over 65 support it.

Only 10 per cent believe pensions would be higher under independence and 34 per cent fear they would be lower.

But what might the No side come to regret? The first question is why its currency intervention proved so ineffective. Arguing persistently for six months that keeping the pound was not going to happen and would not be in Scotland’s interests, has failed to convince Scots on either count.

As many as 57 per cent still believe an independent Scotland should keep the pound.

Meanwhile, nearly half still think an independent Scotland would be allowed to use the pound, virtually unchanged from the 47 per cent of that view in February.

The No campaign will also wonder if an agreed plan for more devolution should have been laid out much earlier. Recent efforts have yielded an eight point rise in those who think Scotland will get more powers, but that proportion still only stands at 49 per cent.

Which questions will prove the more pertinent? We will have to wait until Friday.

John Curtice is professor of politics, Strathclyde University.