Analysis: It’s just too early to say if the drop will bear out

TODAY’S Ucas applicant figures were always going to come under the spotlight, but they should also come with a big health warning as it’s far too soon to tell what impact higher fees will have on student demand.

The applications cycle has been open for just over a month with three full months still to go.

Last year, and before any changes to fees were brought into effect, only 4,000 Scots were straight out of the blocks to apply by the early 15 October deadline, compared to more than 48,000 Scots applicants by the time all were in. It’s typical to see an early trickle of eager applicants with the majority coming later in the year.

So it was inevitable that this year, with all the changes to student fees and finance affecting applicants across the rest of the UK, students and parents would take more time to check information, consider their options, and find out what’s on offer in terms of new bursaries and scholarships. All of this translates into slower decision-making and later applications.

I would say this is particularly the case with students from the rest of the UK that are thinking of applying to study in Scotland as some Scottish universities only set out their indicative fees a matter of a few weeks ago.

Students and parents have not had much time yet to wade through all the information necessary for what is such an important decision. As the months go on, and as students and parents get the information they need to make informed choices, it’s fairly certain we’ll see the trend in applications balance out over the full cycle.

Of course, there have been no changes brought in for Scottish students wanting to study at a Scottish university. Higher education remains free for those living in Scotland. This makes the 10 per cent drop of Scots applying to Scotland in today’s figures seem counter-intuitive at first sight, but since there is no real incentive to apply early, today’s results represent no harm.

It will be important for universities, teachers and others to make sure the message remains clear that Scottish higher education remains free for Scots.

With the career prospects of a Scottish university education the best in the UK, I’m confident that when all is said and done the recent trend of rising Scottish applicants will bear out.

• Alastair Sim is director at Universities Scotland.