Analysis: Dire straits likely to sway youth vote for Taiwan presidency

AN ELECTION that will determine whether China and Taiwan are headed for warmer relations or a period of potentially explosive tension may be decided by a bloc of voters who could not care less about the state of affairs across the Taiwan Strait.

Voters in their 20s will be a critical constituency in Taiwan’s presidential elections in January, and the 3.5 million of them have a message for the candidates seeking their support: talk more about jobs and wages and less about ties with Beijing.

Political debate in Taiwan has traditionally been dominated by the question of Taiwan’s identity and relations with rival China, which sees the self-ruled island as a renegade province that should be reunited with the mainland by force if necessary.

But the younger generation is less interested in issues of identity than their parents, and become irritated when politicians focus on that instead of more immediate problems: low wages, a weak job market and expensive housing.

“I think national identity is important, but the economy is more important. The issue of national identity will be resolved over time. There are more pressing day-to-day problems,” said Chao Po Sun, 27, a life insurance salesman.

The power of Taiwan’s youngest voting bloc is significant. They make up a fifth of voters and like to vote. Four out of five went to the polls in past elections. So this poll may come down to a generation of voters who are disaffected, relatively well educated, and worried about their futures and the economy. And unlike older voters, they are not as settled in their views. With polls showing only a few percentage points separating the two candidates, incumbent Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) president Ma Ying-jeou and opposition Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) Tsai Ing-wen will need to court the youth vote.

“Other voting groups may have already formed their opinions, but young people are new voters who can be persuaded. So getting their support is, of course, very important,” said Sidney Lin, deputy director of the DPP’s Youth Group.

One DPP strategy, according to Lin, is to hit the streets, organising youth-oriented events. Both candidates have Facebook “fan pages” to attract youth online. Like young voters in South Korea, who recently swung Seoul’s mayoral election by turning to an independent candidate, Taiwan’s youth voters are wired and can communicate political views, and politicians’ gaffes, rapidly on the internet.

“Taiwan and South Korea are two places where young people are dissatisfied. The current governments aren’t particularly paying attention to [them]. And they are similar in using social media,” said Bruce Jacobs, professor of Asian Studies at Monash University in Melbourne.

Chang Fang Lo, a 27-year-old accountant, illustrates the challenge for political leaders.“I think the KMT and DPP are both a little self-absorbed,” he said. “Too many people are unemployed. You can’t make any money. Housing prices go up but wages don’t.”

At close to 7 per cent, unemployment among 25 to 29 year olds is well ahead of the overall jobless rate of just over 4 per cent in September. And the average starting salary for graduates only just above the legal minimum wage. Average house prices reached 11 times average income last year.

Thus far, neither party has been particularly effective at courting the youth vote. That may be because the debate once again reverted to the old script, with relations with China in star spot.

“We still see the traditional two-camp campaigns. The focus has turned to cross-Strait relations again,” said Eric Yu, of the Election Study Centre at National Chengchi University.

Last month Ma firmly put the issue back in the frame when he said there could be a peace treaty with China in ten years.

Former DPP president Chen Shui-bian wrote in a column on Tuesday that while policies on the economy were “crucial”, the party would not win if it did not focus on national identity and Taiwan’s status.

Even on their Facebook pages, Ma and Tsai largely address the issue of China. Recently, Ma wrote on Facebook that Taiwan’s vital role was as peacemaker, continuing to improve cross-Strait relations.

To which one Facebook user commented, “First, think of the lives of ordinary people. Only after our lives are stable can we focus on other things.”