An edgy party waits to see if Miliband can make a connection with the British public

IT WILL be a nervy Labour Party that meets to start its conference. In the year since Ed Miliband became leader there have been huge events in Britain and in the world. Yet opinion polls remain stuck where they were. Labour sits on 38 per cent – maintaining the 10 per cent boost that was secured by Harriet Harman when she was leader. The Tories are stuck on the 36 per cent which failed to win them the election. And the Lib Dems, having trashed their brand, are flatlining on 8 per cent. Labour desperately need a breakthrough, but can’t make it. The question which will haunt the conference is why, with unemployment zooming towards three million and the economy stagnating, isn’t support much higher.

Inevitably, it comes back to leadership. David Cameron is far more popular than his party. Ed Miliband is far less popular than his. This disparity undoubtedly reflects the Prime Minister’s personal authority on the one hand, and the failure – thus far – of Miliband to cut through to the public. The past few months have showcased the strengths and weaknesses of Miliband. He called the News International phone hacking scandal absolutely right. He stood up against Murdoch before it was clear he would be so damaged – and was the first to say that the BSkyB bid should be dropped, along with Rebekah Brooks. This gained him praise in the Commons, and amongst the commentariat. But it was a victory noticed by insiders rather than voters.

He followed this triumph with a misjudged response to the riots. The morning after looting in London started he should have been demanding that the army were mobilised. Instead, when he finally intervened in the debate he sounded unfortunately like a social work team leader. This mis-step was far more visible than the triumph over hacking. The British people were watching their leaders responding to the rioting. And, despite waiting four days to come home from holiday, it was Cameron who spoke for the country.

This week Miliband has to connect to Middle England. He has the analysis – his phrase “squeezed middle” has a resonance with families facing declining living standards. What he needs now is empathy. Can he find the language to sketch out a credible vision of the economy and society with a Labour government? If he can, game on. If he can’t, game over. That’s why Labour is nervous.