After Tories' Uxbridge by-election win, it's clear the headlong pursuit of environmental zealotry isn't as popular as some politicians like to think – John McLellan

UK Government may now backtrack on its proposed ban on new petrol and diesel cars in 2030

It was all to play for… until it wasn’t. It’s almost a year to the day since battle commenced between Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss for the Conservative leadership, and it quickly became obvious which candidate the party favoured. To the very end, the former Chancellor insisted the race was still on, when every poll of the membership suggested the opposite, and while the outcome might have been closer than some predictions, the 57.4 to 42.6 per cent victory for the Foreign Secretary was conclusive.

The old-time religion of tax cuts was what Liz Truss promised and the faithful wanted, not her rival’s blood, sweat, toil and tears. But as we all know, after only a month of putting her plan into action, and promising more, she was gone, amidst panicking markets, plunging poll ratings and petrified mortgage holders.

Even without the boost of holding Uxbridge, the Prime Minister has no option but to argue it really is still all to play for and Number 10 is trying to boost grassroots morale, with a recent Downing Street reception for senior councillors. His leadership campaign demonstrated he will not give up until the last vote is counted, but after the chaos of the collapse of Boris Johnson’s tenure and the brief Truss interregnum, reversing Conservative fortunes was always going to be a gargantuan challenge. With an average swing of 21 per cent against the party last week, only the most sunny-side-up, glass-half-full Conservative optimist would bet on a fifth consecutive general election victory, a maximum of 18 months away. And no chance of a dramatic reversal a month later.

It may well be true that Mr Johnson’s old seat stayed blue because of London Mayor Sadiq Khan’s plan to extend the ultra-low emission zone (Ulez) into the suburbs beyond the North and South Circular roads, and it’s also true that, as Mr Sunak said, the chances of success are much higher when there is a similarly favourable single issue on which to fight. But the question is whether there are enough seats with such a dominant single issue, if it’s favourable to the Conservatives, and then if it is sufficient to trump national trends.

Weekend reports suggest both Conservative and Labour parties are taking the Uxbridge result as a warning about the danger of aggressive environmental policies at a time of rising household costs. Although not in a general election context, we have some experience of it in Edinburgh where bullish, anti-car measures were pushed through by a hard-left SNP-Labour administration. Uxbridge just had Ulez, but going into last year’s council elections Edinburgh had low-emission zones, expanded controlled parking, low-traffic neighbourhoods and Spaces for People, all generating a significant amount of local anger, plus controversial recycling bin hubs plonked outside people’s front windows. Conservatives led the opposition across the city and, theoretically at least, the factors which bolstered the Tory vote in Uxbridge should have done the same in Edinburgh, but it didn’t happen because national factors beyond local control kicked in.

Central Scotland is, of course, a very different place to the Home Counties, but nevertheless thousands of local people voted for a party driving through a programme with which they didn’t agree because when it came to the crunch, backing for independence was enough to hold up the SNP vote, while dislike of Mr Johnson and the loss of Ruth Davidson smashed Tory support. The SNP lost just 3.5 per cent of its vote while the Conservative group was rewarded with a collapse of 36 per cent, halving the number of seats won in 2017’s high point. Similarly in Glasgow, despite all the brouhaha about its low-emission zone and amidst outcry about its impact on commercial vehicles, particularly taxis, the SNP retained power.

To have generated the same sort of response in Edinburgh as in Uxbridge would have required the extension of the current plan for a city centre low-emission zone to the whole city, just as there was overwhelming opposition to Labour’s city-wide Edinburgh congestion charge proposal in 2005. Had it not been resoundingly rejected in a referendum that February, it’s highly possible Labour would not have won four seats in the general election three months later.

Labour is in charge at the City Chambers, but although the hard-line approach to traffic control is unchanged, there is no suggestion MP Ian Murray won’t hold Edinburgh South, despite Labour-backed council schemes having a considerable impact on the constituency. Why? Because there are enough Liberal-left voters in the constituency who like that sort of thing, but there is minimal direct impact on household budgets. Conversely, in Aberdeen, voters know anything which hits North Sea oil and gas, like ending new exploration and extraction licences as demanded by Ed Miliband, will wreck the local economy and property values. No wonder Scottish leader Anas Sarwar is nervous.

With Rhodes on fire and Mediterranean temperatures soaring ─ reported with climate change evangelism by the BBC every night ─ it might not seem the most opportune time for a re-think, but the impact and impracticality of what is being proposed can’t be underestimated, particularly when it comes to home energy and insulation. But it takes approaching deadlines and bills to start landing on doormats to alter voting patterns. The Edinburgh SNP liked to claim there was widespread support for its plans to make Edinburgh a net-zero carbon city by 2030, but it’s a fair bet a large proportion of the 48,000 people who voted for them last year either had no idea what that meant for anyone in a pre-war home or didn’t care because they liked Nicola Sturgeon.

Frome and Selby showed there isn’t an Ulez factor in every constituency, and a backtrack on the proposed UK ban on new petrol and diesel cars in 2030 is now likely, but if the centre ground is where elections are won, a re-think about the headlong pursuit of environmental zealotry is long overdue.