2023 predictions: Vladimir Putin to be ousted, Conservatives humbled, Donald Trump indicted, Nicola Sturgeon stays and more – Alex Cole-Hamilton

My column between Christmas and New Year is traditionally the time I get my crystal ball out and make some bold predictions about the year to come.

Russian president Vladimir Putin is set to lose power in 2023, says Alex Cole-Hamilton (Picture: Mikhail Klimentyev/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images)

It’s just a bit of fun really, but it turns out I’m getting better than this. I stuck my neck out last year, and more than half of my predictions came true.

Boris Johnson resigned as PM, Rishi Sunak replaced him (let’s gloss over who actually replaced him initially). Covid restrictions were gone by the summer and the Global North experienced its hottest summer on record. I was wrong about Joe Biden signalling his departure and Scotland qualifying for the World cup, but hey ho, there you go.

What’s more significant is what I didn’t see coming at all. I couldn’t have imagined that Putin would invade Ukraine, tipping us into a new cold war, or that I would find myself sanctioned by the Kremlin and barred from entering Russia. Additionally, having met the late queen in good health in October last year, it didn’t occur to me that we would lose her within the year.

So, for better or worse, here’s what I think will happen in 2023:

1: In large part due to a punishing winter, the war in Ukraine will remain deadlocked until the spring. This deadlock will be broken by a surprise Ukrainian breakthrough in the south and east, possibly with the liberation of Melitopol and Mariupol. Putin will respond by announcing another mass mobilisation of poorly trained and ill-equipped troops. The resultant slaughter will see the tide of public opinion move against him and he will be deposed as Russian president.

2: Both the price of energy and inflation will stabilise and begin to decline in a meaningful way as countries bring alternatives to Russian gas on line. Whilst the cost of living will be punishing, by next Christmas we’ll have a line of sight to better times ahead.

3: The Conservative party will be punished at the ballot box with their worst-ever local election results in England, with the surprise victors (as with the Scottish council elections) being the Liberal Democrats. While talk of a leadership challenge will rumble in the background, Rishi Sunak will remain in place as Prime Minister.

4: Douglas Ross will face a challenge to his leadership of the Scottish Conservative Party, and he will lose.

5: Every year, I predict that Nicola Sturgeon will vacate the office of First Minister, but not this year. I actually think she’s decided that she’ll see through the desperate and arrogant ‘de-facto referendum’ plan and will stay on as SNP leader until the day after the next general election.

6: Covid will tear through China again as it relaxes it’s zero-Covid strategy. It will lead to open opposition to the administration of Xi Jinping.

7: Donald Trump will be indicted and face trial on a number of charges in the US, including inciting insurrection.

I hope for all of our sakes that this is a year that is far more stable and more peaceful than the last. It feels like we’ve been living though some epoch-defining years. Let’s hope 2023 decides to give us all of a bit of a breather.

Alex Cole-Hamilton is Scottish Liberal Democrat MSP for Edinburgh Western