Adam Morris: What is the right-wing case for Scottish independence?

Such an argument is never advanced but the SNP is now likely to be faced with a Labour government at Westminster

What is the right-wing case for Scottish independence? I ask because I’ve never seen one put forward by the various political organisations engaged in the cause of breaking up the UK. And as the SNP gathers for its conference this weekend, one of the key issues to address will be how to amend its tactics with a Labour UK government in mind.

In fairness, for the last decade in which Downing Street has been occupied by a succession of Conservative Prime Ministers, it has made sense for those seeking to diverge to use anti-Tory policies as a basis for doing so.

But unless both Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer experience a dramatic change in fortunes, the latter will be the UK’s first left-of-centre Prime Minister since 2010.

That change will force the Yes campaign to develop a new suite of arguments to show that Scotland is different from the rest of the UK and, therefore, needs its independence.

Former First Minister Alex Salmond flirted with the odd right-wing economic argument, such as the lowering of corporation tax. But, that aside, almost every communication from the SNP and the Greens – the Yes camp’s two main drivers – has been the opposite.

Speeches, press releases, white papers and leaflets have focused on Scotland being “progressive”. A place where poverty can be eliminated, immigrants welcomed with open arms, taxes hiked for the wealthy, and a revolution of renewable energy.

No more evil Westminster policies like the “bedroom tax” or benefits caps.

And, naturally, an independent Scotland would seek to immediately rejoin the European Union to team up with other like-minded left-wing European countries in pursuing a “fairer” global society.

Much of this was vacuous and insincere but it worked on a campaigning level, secured positive headlines, and pushed the result of the 2014 referendum far closer than anyone originally expected.

It also served both the SNP and Greens well at the ballot box. Despite the SNP’s struggles, the party hasn’t lost an election in a generation, and remains favourite to return the most seats at the next General Election.

However, these leftish arguments weren’t chosen because they represented a genuine vision. They were selected because they ran aggressively at odds with the people they were trying to break away from. The more distinct they could make their case, the more successful they would be in persuading people to buy in.

This ought to have been particularly easy in Scotland, hardly known for its fulsome support of the Conservative party, even with the party’s rejuvenation north of the border from 2012.

Now things are set to change.

And, while Sir Keir hardly presents the socialist values of his predecessors, his will still be a left-of-centre government very similar to the one we’ve seen in Holyrood since 2007.

The manifesto isn’t out yet, but we all know the kind of things a Labour administration in Downing Street would prioritise, from “fairer” taxation and a faster route to net zero, to more open immigration and a softer stance on the gender debate.

More love for the NHS and nationalisation, more hostility towards private schools.

The clear water between Holyrood and Westminster, which the nationalists depend on, will dissipate.

How does a Yes campaign – which thrives primarily in talking up the political and social difference between Scotland and England – adjust?

As the Labour tenure goes on, it will have to develop a new agenda, one that appeals to a middle Scotland who may be nervous about what exactly Sir Keir is up to.

Lower taxes could form part of this, as a driver towards growing the economy.

It never came naturally to Nicola Sturgeon, and doesn’t seem to appeal much to Humza Yousaf either, but perhaps a new SNP leader would be open to an unashamed pro-business strategy.

Instead of levying higher charges and riddling various sectors with impossible targets, a revived Yes campaign could talk of making Scotland the best place in the world to do business. By cutting red tape and reducing the taxation burden, businesses from elsewhere in the UK could be attracted north to set up shop.

With that would come job opportunities, better training and higher wages.

Sir Keir has already hinted he wants to turn the taps off in the North Sea. That may be popular in the west end of Glasgow, but it’s infuriated not just the north east of Scotland, but also places like Falkirk and Helensburgh, whose local economies are heavily supported by the presence of oil and gas.

It shouldn’t be beyond the wit of the next SNP leader to find a way to champion Scotland’s oil industry, and the 100,000 jobs it supports, while recognising the role of renewables and other clean energy solutions.

Like the SNP, Labour has also been sceptical about nuclear over the years, both in terms of energy production and its presence on the Clyde as a deterrent.

If the nationalists change tack on those topics they may find more divergence from the UK, which will be helpful when making the case for divorce.

Much of this means greater tax receipts, which generates more cash for investment in public services.

It’s been very easy for people like me on the centre-right to oppose independence. Not because of any inherent sense of Britishness or aversion to the cult of nationalism, but rather that every vision laid out for a separate Scotland I found to be objectionable.

Maybe that helps explain why Scottish Labour has been so uncomfortable over the last 15 years riding to the defence of a Conservative-led union.

If the politics of it all shifts, where will that leave the dial which the SNP has found so hard to shift above the 50 per cent mark?

It probably won’t be enough for me to change my mind on the constitutional question. But come back to me after five years of the left running the show.

Adam Morris is the former head of media for the Scottish Conservatives